Thread by @kamilkazani

FYI: When you see Russian elite members "acting mad", be aware they are acting 100% rationally. It's smart to play mad. Mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive, you can:

a) Play the "voice of reason" -> Putin destroys you
b) Play "mad" -> Putin keeps you
c) Keep silence🧵

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624098698669043719

You won't get why Medvedev is "acting so deranged" without taking into account the consequences of not acting deranged

"Nazi drug addicts"
"Pigs"
"We'll retaliate using weapons of any kind"

This is not a signal to you. It is a signal to Putin:

"I am not a danger. Leave me be"

Same with Lavrov's "Jewish Hitler" remarks. I think it is very smart and well thought behaviour. He is purposefully playing "antisemitic" to maximise the damage to his personal reputation in the West. The worse, the better. Non-terrible standing in the West = liability in Moscow

Why? Well, because plenty of influential interest groups in Moscow do *not* want the war. They bleed daily from it, economically and otherwise. They need deescalation, otherwise some of them will get completely destroyed. Many people with resources need deescalation ASAP

They could not pressure Putin though (that would be dumb). What they could hypothetically do is to try negotiating a deal with the West over the Putin's head. For that however, you need someone:

1. From the upper elite
2. With strong foreign connections
3. Acceptable reputation

Further argument will be based upon the following assumptions:

A. Putin is not dumb
B. Those around him are not dumb either

In this case:

1. Putin understand the danger
2. Those around him understand that he understands it. So they are destroying their reputations preventively

"Jewish Hitler", "pigs", "I'll nuke y'all" is conscious reputitional self-damage. You cut off your option to negotiate with the West over the Putin's head -> signal loyalty. You will be spared. The more self-damage you do, the safer Putin feels with you -> you with him

Notice which Russian functionary works on inflicting repetitional self-damage harder than anyone else? Dmitry Medvedev. Why? Because he is the former President -> an obvious candidate for any dissatisfied faction

So he's chosing a reputational suicide over a physical one. Smart

Same with Lavrov. As a Foreign Minister he has extensive Western connections and he could hypothetically try to use them. So he cuts off this option. Ideally, you need to outperform Putin, becoming even less acceptable candidature

Antisemitism is a good pick. Very smart

Someone with acceptable reputation is a liability. If he has strong connections and is from upper elite, he is a suicide candidature.

Someone with absolutely and totally unacceptable one is an asset though. He'd be conveying "Better Putin than monsters like Prigozhin message"

Let's review our options again:

a) Play the "voice of reason" -> Putin destroys you
b) Play "mad" -> Putin keeps you
c) Keep silence

Putin is explicitly or implicitly incentivising to take (b) and will destroy anyone who takes (a). So (c) is the most interesting group here

When reading the mood and the intentions of the Russian elite, ignore those who "play mad". They are not mad, and their actions are most likely motivated by the instinct of survival. They are making outrageous declarations, because they want to live. In fact they're scared

Do not look for the "voice of reason" either. Playing the voice of reason would amount to an open rebellion under the current conditions. It would be also a stupid way to rebel, announcing it out loud. Of course nobody is playing this game

Once again, they are not that dumb

Look for those who keep silence, or try to keep silence, performing only the basic minimum of ritual rhetorics. That is where the *actual* Russian opposition resides. If we frame the leading faction as the "Party of War", oppositional one would be the "Party of Plague"

The end🧵