Thread by @wildweatherdan

I back forecasted the latest "Balloon" shoot down in AK. Based on the location and time, it tracks back to near the Kotzebue NWS Rawinsonde site. Did we shoot down an NWS Weather balloon?? There is no data for the 12Z launch from that site and all the rest worked. #Chinaballoon

If not, then it goes back to the Bering Sea and then to NE Russia.

Also possible they did not launch a balloon at Kotzebue this morning at 12Z.

Could be that station is not used now. NOME is not that far away. Data is in for Nome.

Nome sounding stopped at 100 mb today. It could be the NOME rawinsonde balloon had issues.

Could be the NOME Balloon if it failed and data stops at 100 mb at NOME on the 12z launch. It could have not gone up and burst as it should.

If it failed and was drifting down into commercial air lanes, we probably needed to do something. The NOAA Rawinsonde balloons are designed to burst and then fall by a small parachute back to earth. They are ofen found and reconditioned.

Pentagon says they are confident that the object did not belong to the USA Govt.
That would rule out a NOAA rawinsonde balloon. Suspect they will need to recover to know for sure. Nome launches their balloon at 12 and 00Z. That is 3 AM and 3 PM local time in Nome.