Thread by @Martha_Gill

Birthrates are falling in the rich world and elsewhere. Women and men in these places on average want 2 children but have far fewer. Why? I think we’ve been missing something 🧵

We tend to blame this (in the UK) on problems like lack of housing, income, and childcare

But this can’t be right. Today’s millennials live in greater luxury in these respects than their fertile contemporaries in poorer countries and of course most of their fertile ancestors. And it is upper class millennials among whom birth rates are falling most

It’s not about the money. We’ve been increasing birth incentives since the 90s but birth rates have fallen

Ok so it’s about social structures then: available childcare and career penalties for mothers

Well, not really. In our fertile recent past, remember, women suffered even larger career penalties. And even in Nordic childcare utopias, birthdates are too low and in general decline

These policies are of course good on their own terms. But they don’t shift birthrates all that much

In fact falling birthrates are tied firmly to one metric: rising female empowerment

Contraception, abortion, richer life choices mean women can choose to have fewer kids

But that DOESN’T explain why women are having fewer children than THEY THEMSELVES would like

Why is that?

Here’s a suggestion: surveys suggest THE TOP reason for women not having as many children as they would like is not finance or childcare or lifestyle related.

These women just have not found the right man

Hang on, why do only modern women have this problem?

Well, “just not finding the right man” is a MODERN LUXURY.

In the past, women who didn’t find Mr Right would likely at some point have to pair with Mr Wrong: single life was just too miserable and poverty stricken

Women may not ideally want to be single and childless but they can now afford to be IF the right man doesn’t come along

That solves our paradox: why women who have more choice end up with fewer children than they would like

Their first choice might still be “marriage and babies with Mr Right”. But their SECOND CHOICE is staying single.

Their grandmother’s and mother’s second choice would more likely have been “marriage and babies with Mr Wrong”

But if our theory is correct, what should policy makers do? They can’t just demand women - or men - pair up with Mr and Miss Wrong.

Women (and many men) have freely decided they would rather pay the price of not doing so and have no spouse or children at all

Well here’s a radical solution: target single parents. Policy makers could make it a lot easier to have a child alone. Single mother numbers are already bucking the birthrate trends. If we really want to tackle the birthrate problem: that’s where they should start

Piece here theguardian.com/commentisfree/…