Back from a long break. Personal news to be shared soon. As for markets? #Reflation and #BigFlip in the making. Animal spirit is back, supported by lower rates' vol. Definitely a new market regime. 1/n
https://twitter.com/MikRaczynski/status/1607749525736919040?s=20&t=CXkCQu1MneWLD_LDmNo1cQ
What is the new regime about? Fed is done with micromanaging of financial conditions. No more, no less. And it makes complete sense for them to finally stop holding the markets' (bearish) hand. However, actions have consequences and markets are what they are. 2/n
Financial conditions've eased, animal spirit's back. It should support some reflation later in the year. Stocks've already sniffed it out. Equities are lower (discount rate), but internals say no to disinflation/recession narratives. Also the case when you exclude Energy. 3/n 
Poland macro? Aktywność odbija po (szczęśliwie) unikniętym energy cruch. Inflacja ciągle silna (acz będzie mechanicznie schodzić na odczycie r/r), podbijana oczekiwaniami, min wage hikes i stymulusem fiskalnym. 4/n
https://twitter.com/MikRaczynski/status/1559888519677583363?s=20&t=2LquYISZ4No2E9KCxCzT1g
Nadal dalsze podwyżki stóp bardziej prawdopodobne niż obniżki. Po przerwie wraca też słabość PLN. Stay tuned! 5/5.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
