Robin Guo Profile picture
Feb 13, 2023 21 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Who’s the web3 gamer, the casual n00b or the 1337 gamer? We here @a16zGames ran a survey to dig in a bit more.

A couple highlights:
87% traded digital items in games before ⚖️
72% male (comp. to survey avg. 59%) 🧑‍💻
2x more likely to love MOBAs 🧙‍♂️

Thread 🧵 Image
1/ Let's start with the market. In the existing gamers I sampled, crypto usage is becoming more widespread amongst US gamers. But web3 games are still relatively nascent among them, with only 6% of gamers having played. Image
2/ Among those players, a small minority were opposed to crypto. The detractors tended to be bimodal: casual gamers still new to the space, or very hardcore gamers who played a lot. Image
Beyond the obvious suggestions on growing the space (being player first, solving UX/FTUE, improving security, etc.), there are a couple areas I’ll dive into in this thread:

a) Thinking through an economy where resetting the balance can have substantial financial implications
b) NFT drops as a form of leveraged UA, which creates an incentivized holder community that needs to be actively managed

c) Finding player-genre fit aka finding the fun

Let's keep diving in 👇
4/ Sentiment has shifted a bit over time, and here at @a16zGames we’ll continue to monitor what drives some of these changes. When web3 studios launch new games that are intrinsically fun and player-forward, perceptions among trad gamers should change. Image
5/ Interestingly, gamers seemed less concerned about volatility and security issues in some web3 games. 31% of respondents simply “[didn’t] know enough” about the games, the top listed reason. Understanding the mechanics of the game can be hard enough, but layer on... Image
getting a wallet, figuring out self custody, buying the token to purchase the NFT, signing the smart contract, paying the gas fee, etc. and it's a lot of cognitive work for some players. Compared to more familiar mobile games, time to fun is way too long.
6/ Compared to the non-web3 gamers I surveyed (of which the majority was male), the web3 gamers skewed male (73% vs. surveyed pop of 59%), young adults (25-34), urban, and wealthier Image
Current adopters of crypto games tend to gravitate more towards higher income urban centers, and also tend to be fairly tech-savvy. Image
7/ So... what did the survey results tell us about the gamers themselves? The ones in our sample tend to be hardcore gamers with higher player patterns across all platforms. 22-25% more web3 gamers play multiple times a week on console/PC compared to the overall average. Image
8/ They also liked traditionally more "hardcore" genres. First-person shooters, BRs, and action games were popular as per usual, but MOBAs and MMOs ranked higher among the web3 gamers surveyed and puzzle and life sim games lower. Image
9/ Web3 gamers seem to have way more experience trading digital items on previous web2 marketplaces (Steam, WoW Auction House, Runescape Grand Exchange, etc.). This naturally translates to experience trading digital items on new crypto/ NFT marketplaces. Image
Anecdotally I've met a ton of folks that have spent thousands of hours on old school MMOs, trading commodities, buying expensive items, writing bots, and getting scammed once or twice too.

With web3, a challenge to solve will be managing an economy that now has RWM implications. All game economies are rebalanced and modified over time, but now those price fluctuations aren’t simply in "monopoly" money, but fungible currency.
10/ Tracking with the more hardcore demographic, the web3 gamers in the survey tended to be more interested in competition, community, and brands compared to baseline, and were less interested in simply playing to "pass the time." Image
Game studios should think about whether they want to market to this hardcore base of early adopters of web3 games, or a broader audience of more casual players, as the GTM will be different.
To wrap, a few thoughts:
a) Web3 gamers surveyed in the US tend to be more hardcore and sophisticated, less interested in passing the time and more experienced in digital goods trading
b) To expand the space, web3 games can use some of these play motivations and genres
to better understand game-player fit. Target the core or expand the breadth.
c) Besides solving UI/UX, FTUE, scams, etc. building a robust web3 game economy is a complicated task that even in web2 was difficult to achieve. Diablo, WoW, Runescape, etc. can give lessons on design.
As a reminder, the survey demographics: US-only, 2K+ surveyed, play games multiple times a month. Survey directional data given limited size. Image
For more on games, AI, web3 and more, give me a follow @zebird0!

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More from @zebird0

May 19, 2024
People ask what my framework is for web3 games. Runescape is always my reference point for some of the primitives that web3 games innovate on 🧵

1) Emergent economic behavior
2) Bots as a feature, not a bug
3) Stakes are intrinsic not extrinsic
4) Crowdsourcing design decisions Image
But first, applications for SPEEDRUN close in just 12 hours!

@a16zGames is actively looking for great web3 games founders innovating in tech, games, and crypto. Let's chat if you're building here.

sr.a16z.com
1) Emergent economic behavior

MMOs are systems design through and through. The gameplay in Runescape is literally point-and-click, and while there is skill in very high-level whip PvP timing, 99% of the game is simply clicking on things and waiting.
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Last week, we here @a16z gave our predictions on big ideas for 2024. For me, I'm doubling down on anime.

Anime has quickly become one of the highest grossing genres of games by ARPU. In 2022, Mihoyo grossed over $3.8 billion from Genshin and Mihoyo.
And... they also grossed more profit than gaming giant Activision Blizzard (think, Candy Crush, Call of Duty, etc.)



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Earlier this year, Nintendo launched Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, and Attack on Titan wrapped up its storied run as one of the most popular TV shows for the year. Image
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Aug 23, 2023
Waifus are eating the world.

Mihoyo made $3.8B in revenue last year (PocketGamer), nearly half of Activision Blizzard. Here's why anime games / culture are taking over🧵
1/ The Rise of Anime

69% of GenZ watch anime, up from 57% of millennials and only 23% of baby boomers. What was once a niche genre has now gone mainstream!

There's a reason why Mihoyo's motto is "tech otakus can save the world." Image
Distribution has grown. More than half of Netflix's subscribers have watched anime on their platform, while Funimation and Crunchyroll continue to grow as anime-dedicated platforms. No longer do we have to wait for neon fansubs of our favorite anime to come out. Image
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May 26, 2023
SPEEDRUN. Demo. Day.

33 of the best companies hand picked from 1600+ applications that are innovating at the frontiers of gaming, AI, mental health, ed tech, social, etc. Lots of long nights for this one 😅

June 8th. 12-5PM. Apply here: info.a16z.com/apply-for-spee…
2/ We're really excited about this cohort.

Top developers from Riot, Nintendo, Blizzard, Discord, Epic. Technical, GenZ influencers with millions of followers. Second time founders of unicorns. AI engineers working at the frontiers. Even a company partnered with Leo Messi!
3/ We've got a little bit of everything.

Fintech platforms. Fitness games. On-Chain Factorio. Discord growth tools. Browser tools and platforms. Social MMOs. AI animation and asset generation. Edtech. Indofuturism PUBG. Emerging AI narratives. And many many more.
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Mar 9, 2023
Games VC is a unique job that didn’t exist 10 years ago.

So here are 5 lessons I learned from working @a16z for the last year 🧵 Image
1/ Metrics > Team > Ideas. Doesn't matter what kind of genius thesis you have on a particular market, if a startup is blowing up everyone knows it. Strong retention, high growth, tons of deal heat. The hard part is picking out a sustainable game from overnight flashes in the pan.
After metrics, we look for great teams (production, design, tech, and art). That can be second/third time founders, EPs of great games, high derivative younger founders... They come in many shapes and sizes but the team and the people are the nexus of great companies.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 8, 2023
How did this janky game get so popular? A theory on how BRs like @PUBG/@FortniteGame caught lightning in a bottle. 🧵

👀 Session novelty
🧭 Market/player opp
👯‍♀️ Fun alone, better with friends
📈 Monotonically increasing intensity
Battle royales were first popularized by fiction, the 2000s Japanese film "Battle Royale," The Hunger Games, etc. Transmedia works!
Brandon Greene (aka PlayerUnknown) took these ideas to a DayZ mod (itself a mod of Arma) back in 2013, inspiring a proper mode in H1Z1. Those mods proved the core loop of the battle royale genre, the foundation blocks for what became PUBG

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Read 16 tweets

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