(1/5) Russian Ministry of Defence and private military contractor (PMC) forces have likely suffered 175-200,000 casualties since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. This likely includes approximately 40-60,000 killed.
(2/5) The Russian casualty rate has significantly increased since September 2022 when βpartial mobilisationβ was imposed.
(3/5) By modern standards, these figures represent a high ratio of personnel killed compared to those wounded. This is almost certainly due to extremely rudimentary medical provision across much of the force.
(4/5) Artillery has almost certainly inflicted the majority of Russiaβs casualties.
(5/5) Wagner PMC forces have deployed large numbers of convict-recruits. These have probably experienced a casualty rate of up to 50%.
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Andrey Turchak, the leader of the Russian parliamentary group that is focused on the so-called Special Military Operation in Ukraine, stated on 16 February 2023 that the group had presented a report to Russian President Putin.
(2/4)
The report is likely to cover issues such as social support to those mobilised and their families. This issue is likely to become more salient if any further mobilisation (be it overt or tacit) takes place.
(1/6) The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the Ukraine operation as they have for many months.
(2/6) Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity. Air activity is now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since summer 2022.
(1/5) On 09 February 2023, Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev called for an increase in Russian tank production while visiting the Omsk Transport Machine Construction plant.
(2/5) This follows several public comments by President Putin urging the defence industry to better support the βspecial military operationβ.
(1/5) In the last three days, Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora.
(2/5) However, organised Ukrainian defence continues in the area. The tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress.
(1/6) As of 07 February 2023, open source imagery indicated Russia had likely further bolstered defensive fortifications in central Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southern Ukraine, particularly near the town of Tarasivka.
(2/6) As of 08 January 2023, Russia had established defensive fortifications between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.