Thread by @whyvert

The Great Decarceration.

Most people are unaware that incarceration rates have fallen a lot in recent years.

The black incarceration rate fell by 35% in 2006-2018.

Then in 2020 imprisonment suddenly fell more

(the year of pandemic and BLM).

Dec 31 2019: 2,086,000 incarcerated
Dec 31 2020: 1,691,600 incarcerated

= nearly 400,000 (or 20%) fewer prisoners in one year.

Stage 1 of The Great Decarceation 2010-19. Rate drops gradually from 960 to 810.

Stage 2 of The Great Decarceration 2020. Rate drops suddenly 810 to 660 in one year Dec 2019-Dec 2020.

BJS hasn't released numbers for 2021 yet.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistic, Correctional Populations in the United States, 2020 – Statistical Tables (March 2022)

(This does not disaggregate by race.)

bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pd…

Meanwhile, a recent survey found that most people think that incarceration rates have increased, not decreased dramatically.

The Great Decarceration should be more widely known. It might help explain the increase in crime.

Peak incarceration rate was 1,000 per 100,000 in 2006.
At end of 2020: 660 per 100,000.
Probably even less now.

Black and Hispanic incarceration rates have fallen more than white.
Probably because urban counties are reluctant to send people to prison, while rural counties are still tough on crime.

NYT: Small Indiana County Sends More to Prison than San Francisco
nytimes.com/2016/09/02/ups…