We are finally releasing the latest update to our #SLOTS @ihplk polling of General Election voting intent!
The NPP/JVP and SJB were running neck-and-neck amongst likely voters in January 2023 with 32% and 31% each. Both were well ahead of the UNP and SLPP who were on 9% and 8%.
The NPP/JVP and SJB were running neck-and-neck amongst likely voters in January 2023 with 32% and 31% each. Both were well ahead of the UNP and SLPP who were on 9% and 8%.
The past year has seen big swings in support for the major parties. The main trend is a collapse in support for the SLPP since 03/22. The NPP/JVP were the big winners initially, but they peaked in 08/22, after which they lost support to a UNP surge, which itself peaked in 10/22.
The SJB has made slow gains, taking a clear lead from Oct. '22. But since Dec. '22, NPP/JVP support has surged drawing them level with the SJB.
If this translates into voting at local elections, SJB & NPP/JVP would win pluralities in most, but most councils would end up as NOC.
If this translates into voting at local elections, SJB & NPP/JVP would win pluralities in most, but most councils would end up as NOC.
We estimate that SJB & ITAK will lead the NPP/JVP in the Northern & Eastern provinces, but the NPP/JVP will lead the SJB in the Western, Southern, North-Central & Sabaragamuwa Provinces, and will do better in rural areas, whilst the SJB will do better in urban/municipal councils.
The main driver of these swings has been where 2020 General Election SLPP voters have gone. In Jan, less than 1 in 7 former SLPP voters intend to vote for it. SLPP voters now prefer the NPP/JVP (35%) more than the SJB (19%), but it's unclear how strong these preferences are.
Another consequence of these swings is that except for the SJB and ITAK, former SLPP supporters now dominate the voter base of the NPP/JVP, UNP and SLFP.
Technical Notes:
(1) Jan '23 estimates based on 724 #SLOTS interviews conducted in 01/23, and 9,710 interviews conducted overall from 31/08/21–16/02/23. Estimates generated using MRP to match likely national voters, with margin of error for Jan '23 assessed as 2–3%.
(1) Jan '23 estimates based on 724 #SLOTS interviews conducted in 01/23, and 9,710 interviews conducted overall from 31/08/21–16/02/23. Estimates generated using MRP to match likely national voters, with margin of error for Jan '23 assessed as 2–3%.
(2) We've changed our methods, b'cos the dispersion of support across parties after Mar '22 + difficulties in maintaining interview numbers with limited funding made our previous approach inadequate. We've adopted a form of MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification).
MRP is a method that is increasingly used by pollsters like @YouGov to leverage small samples, and it requires extensive data modeling and computer time, so it remains for us @ihplk a work in progress.
Full details here:
ihp.lk/publications/d…
Full details here:
ihp.lk/publications/d…
Other media reporting:
dailymirror.lk/opinion/IHP-SL…
dailymirror.lk/opinion/IHP-SL…
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