Thread by @VoxWeatherZa

🌀⚠️CYCLONE FREDDY MAKING HIS WAY TO MOZAMBIQUE THEN NORHTERN SA ⚠️🌀:

Freddy is located 256 km south-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has moved westward at 26 km/h (14 knots) over the past 6 hours.

#Freddy #CycloneFreddy

[A THREAD]

Having made landfall on Tuesday night over the east coast of Madagascar, Freddy is forecast to track generally west southwestward as it is ripped apart by the mountainous eastern region of Madagascar.

FREDDY represents a significant flood risk for Madagascar as soils are already saturated in central parts of the island from the impact of Cyclone Cheneso, which stalled off the west coast of the island and brought torrential rains in late January

The system is forecast to weaken to around 85 km/h (45 knots) over the next 12 hours as it approaches the Mozambique Channel.

Overnight into Thursday the system will enter the Mozambique Channel and Thursday afternoon Freddy is forecast to reach its fifth and final peak 110 km/h

As the subtropical ridge to the south continues to build, Freddy will be forced westward making landfall on Friday morning as a Strong Tropical Strom making landfall
just north of Vilanculos during Friday morning.

WILL INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDDY HIT SA??

“Freddy” will move inland, after making landfall over Mozambique, possibly affecting eastern Zimbabwe and northern South Africa

Remnants of “Freddy” would still have the capacity to deliver significantly heavy rainfall as well as the possibility of extensive flooding.

“Freddy” will affect the NE parts of South Africa from early Saturday until Monday (25 to 27 February 2023) especially the Lowveld and escarpment areas of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, as the weather system will be semi-stationary along the north-eastern border for a few days.

Very heavy rainfall in the order of 200 to 400 mm is possible, and this may result in widespread significant flooding.

The districts in question are Vhembe and Mopani in Limpopo, and to a slightly lesser extent, Ehlanzeni in Mpumalanga.

This, after significant flooding occurred over the Lowveld and escarpment areas (such as the Kruger National Park) the last few weeks, may be catastrophic and cause prolonged and severe impacts.

In addition to heavy rains, strong winds caused by “Freddy” are also expected in the north-eastern parts from Friday evening, with average speeds of about 45 km/h.” SAWS

Information from SAWS Media Release and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).