Thread by @BrynnTannehill

I've seen a lot of people jump on Marjorie Taylor-Greene's comments about needing a national divorce. Based on other (seemingly unrelated, but not really) events, this is way more complicated than "We had one civil war already." 1/n

nymag.com/intelligencer/…

First, it needs to be acknowledged that the US is going in a bad direction. The GOP wants to assume authoritarian control over the US, and Gov. DeSantis is providing a roadmap on how to ban freedom of speech and the press, silence corporations, and drive LGBT people out. 2/n

But, at a fundamental level, our system of government is not able to handle this moment: we are effectively gridlocked to real issues (health care, the environment, labor, the economy, gun violence, immigration, etc..) 3/n

At a more fundamental level, we have two competing visions for America that are mutually exclusive, both sides really don't like each other, but one of the two is violent, delusional, and willing to destroy democracy to get its way. 4/n damemagazine.com/2021/11/11/div…

The term irreconcilable differences comes to mind.

In my cover story for The New Republic, I wrote about how there is actually a limited number of ways this can turn out. I thought the tipping point would happen after 2024, but it may be much sooner. 5/n newrepublic.com/article/168784…

We are going to see relatively soon (next few years) more clearly what path we go down, because Tennessee (and other red states) are forcing the issue, similar to how they forced the issue at Fort Sumter in 1861. 6/n

To review, Tennessee has passed a bill out of committee that would bar insurers from doing business with the state if they cover health care for trans people anywhere in the US. The goal is to get big carriers to drop all coverage. 7/n

https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1628107981924466715

This will get challenged in court, both for commerce clause violations and ERISA. However, raise your hand if you have any confidence in this current SCOTUS? Yeah, after the SB8, Dobbs, and Hawaii v. Trump rulings, you shouldn't. 8/n theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

With 6 staunch conservative Catholics on the court, an opportunity to nearly eliminate trans health care nationwide would make them absolutely drool. They'll likely find a reason why they can't strike it down, or use the 10th Amendment as a rationale. 9/n

It should be noted that this sort of blackmail can be used on any topic: whether it's Disney for promoting "woke" material, coverage of abortions, drug manufacturers and Mifepistrone, or anything else they want to ban. 10/n

Let's assume this survives judicial review. If Anthem / Kaiser / BCBS tell Tennessee the go pound sand, it's likely that Texas and Florida jump in to add pressure. If they give in, it increases the likelihood of blue states jumping in as well. 11/n

So, what happens if California and New York say, "Ok, fine, we won't contract with any insurers who don't cover trans health care, because laws in this state say it has to be covered."?

Now, companies have to decide: do they want to do business in CA & NY, or TX and FL? 12/n

Thus begins the economic process of national mitosis. Companies are forced to decide which parts of the US they want to do business in. It absolutely can happen: remember how Gov. Newsome trolled SCOTUS after SB8? 13/n gov.ca.gov/2022/12/19/gov…

The other possibility is that blue states meekly accept red states dictating how everything happens there, from access to health care, to Governor DeSantis sicking the FL State AG on CA citizens who criticize DeSantis online. 14/n

https://twitter.com/MatthewSchafer/status/1628197514456203266

This is the path of no return that leads to a future that looks like Russia or Hungary where there's no hope of political change, nowhere safe for women, minorities, or LGBT people, and freedom of speech and the press exist in theory only. 15/n

The other path, that I wrote about all the way back in 2015 (again, being Cassandra sucks) is a country that's increasingly "Two Americas", where there is diminishing cultural and economic exchange. 16/n huffpost.com/entry/two-amer…

This presumes that red states, and the courts, don't press the issue. In reality, they will: they want to end abortion, trans health care, and teaching truthful history throughout the country. They want to establish the supremacy of religion in public life. 17/n

The proposed law in Tennessee, and laws proposed by MTG about trans people, illustrate that the right is incapable of not pressing the issue. SCOTUS, for its part, is entirely disinterested in heading off a national crisis or stare decisis as seen after their Dobbs decision. 18/n

Which puts us in the position of blue states eventually either deciding between protecting their citizens and uphold their own democratic values (freedom of the press, speech, bodily autonomy) or respecting the authority of the courts and the federal government. 19/n

You can only pick one. Regardless of which one you pick, the results are catastrophic: de facto secession or accepting a descent into a Russian-style dystopia.

Tennessee's bill is the first cannonball sailing over Fort Sumter. 20/n

It's a declaration of intent, and the only hope is that someone comes to their sense and the bill dies on the floor, or the courts overturn it. That's a bad risk.
There's also nothing to say that other states won't imitate it, on trans health care or other issues. 21/n

So, all this talk of MTG being nuts is both correct, and incorrect. The pressure to create secession and a civil war is coming entirely from the right, just like the South was creating the pressure in 1861 out of their own paranoia. Lincoln had no intention of ending slavery 22/n

But, to say that secession is unthinkable... No, it's not given the Sophie's Choice that is going to be presented to blue states in the very near future if SCOTUS consistently rules in favor of TN and other conservative states. 23/n

Indeed, as I wrote a year ago, it seems highly likely that SCOTUS will eventually make another Dredd Scott ruling that locks the US in on a course where the choice between autocracy and splitting becomes inevitable. 24/n losangelesblade.com/2022/04/24/the…

From a trans person's perspective, they're both terrible outcomes, but in the end I'd rather have half the country I can flee to rather than none of it.

Which is why we must save democracy now, before one of these two is locked in. 25/n