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T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
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Feb 23 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
On that review about masks. 🧵 of 🔗
theconversation.com/yes-masks-redu…
vox.com/future-perfect…
news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Also worth noting who the authors are. Here's one of them:

cbc.ca/news/health/ca…
sciencebasedmedicine.org/masks-revisite…
skepchick.org/2023/02/revisi…
latimes.com/business/story…

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More from @TRyanGregory

T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Feb 22
Let's say it costs $1 million to improve air quality in a school. Way too expensive to benefit 50 million kids?

Cost to upgrade every school in America (~130,000 schools): $130 billion.

Estimated lifetime cost of F-35 fighter jets: $1.6 trillion.

pbs.org/newshour/healt…
nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
Sigh. Fine, you say $1 million per school isn't enough (not really the point, but ok). So let's say you were to shift priorities and spend the entire lifetime cost of the the F-35 fighter on schools. That's $1,600,000,000,000 Ă· 130,000 schools = $12 million per school.
Read 4 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Feb 22
Wut.
Read 4 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Feb 21
Discussions about variants are becoming untenably complicated and I believe @WHO needs to take action to alleviate this issue. There are now 1,000 subvariants and recombinants within "Omicron", and PANGO aliases are making it significantly more difficult to follow lineages.

1/ Evolutionary tree of SARS-CoV-2 variants showing the large a
Consider the two most important recent lineages in many parts of the world: BQ.1.* and XBB.*.

BQ.1 = BA.5.3.1.1.1.1.1

XBB = BA.2.10.1.1 x BA.2.75.3.1.1.1

Both lineages have spawned multiple generations of descendants (most notably BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5).

2/
PANGO designations receive a new alias with a different letter prefix when they get longer than 3 layers of descendants.

For example, BQ.1 = BA.5.3.1.1.1.1.1 = B. 1.1.529.5.3.1.1.1.1.1

3/
Read 8 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Feb 20
Um, when did people actually get the vaccines? Certainly not in late 2020. Move the arrows to reflect actual vaccinations and try again.
LOL

Daily vaccinations administered globally. The peak was arounCumulative global vaccinations. Overall rates were low until
Read 6 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Feb 20
The logic of the PANGO system is great and has worked well. But here's a good example of just how confusing things are becoming.

EF.1 = BQ.1.1.13.1

EG.1 = XBB.1.9.2.1

EH.1 = BQ.1.28.1

EI.1 skipped (*letter "I" not used*)

EJ.1 = BN.1.3.8.1

EK.1.= XBB.1.5.13.1

1/
So now there are two XBB lineage variants no longer indicated as descendant of a recombinant (no "X" prefix), and their aliases are not sequential (EG.1 and EK.1).

EK.1 is a descendant of XBB.1.5 (Kraken), but there's no way to know this without looking it up.

2/
There are also several BQ.1 descendants that aren't BQ or sequential now (EF.1 and EH.1).

We now have to drill down several levels to know even the simplest thing like whether these are BA.2 or BA.5 lineages.

3/
Read 9 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Feb 18
We have a new proposed system for assigning "common names" to variants that are being discussed. Nicknames will be based on astronomy. Starting letter indicates lineage/genetic background, a letter "R" in the name shows recombinant ancestry.

1/
whn.global/common-names-f…
The first variant to receive a nickname using the new system is XBB.1.9.1 "Hyperion", after a moon of Saturn.

First letter is H, so it's within the BA.2 lineage. Letter R in the name, so it's derived from a recombination event or descended from a recombinant variant.

2/
Recall that XBB (Gryphon) = BJ.1 x BM.1.1.1 = BA.2.10.1.1 x BA.2.75.3.1.1.1 = B.1.1.529.2.10.1.1 x B.1.1.529.2.75.5.1.3.1.1

XBB.1.9.1 (Hyperion) is the 1st descendant of the 9th descendant of the first descendant of XBB. It is not descended from XBB.1.5 (Kraken).

3/
Read 7 tweets

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