max seddon Profile picture
Feb 23 9 tweets 7 min read
“He has three advisers. Ivan the Terrible. Peter the Great. And Catherine the Great.”

On the imperial hubris and intelligence failures that led Putin into Ukraine – and his determination to see the invasion through.

with @felschwartz and @ChristopherJM
ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM With the scale of the disaster clear, Putin is seeking new rationales to justify the war.

“He tells people close to him, ‘It turns out we were completely unprepared. But it’s good that we found out about it this way, rather than when Nato invades us’.”

ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM One of Putin's worst mistakes was to trust Viktor Medvedchuk, his proxy in Ukraine, who insisted Ukrainians would greet Russia's army with open arms.

Russia spent huge sums paying a network of collaborators. But most of them just took the money and ran.

ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM Prewar predictions Ukraine’s army would collapse assumed Russia’s air force would quickly gain control of the skies.

Instead, Russia’s army shot down so many of its own aircraft it ran out of pilots with combat experience who were still prepared to fly.

ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, says: “From artillery units, from tanks, and we even saw it from our intercepts of their conversations. They shot down their own helicopters and they shot down their own planes.”

ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM Once the scale of the failures dawned on Putin, the scapegoat was FSB general Sergei Beseda, the man responsible for much of the bad intel underpinning the invasion.

He was placed under house arrest – but subsequently released like nothing had happened.

ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM US officials arrived for a meeting wondering, after news of Beseda’s detention leaked, whether he'd turn up and how the Russians might explain where he was.

Instead, Beseda walked in and said: “You know, the rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated.”
ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM For many in the elite, the stream of lies to Putin is a survival tactic: most of Putin’s aides have told friends they oppose the war but feel powerless to do anything about it. “It’s really a unique war in world history, when all the elite is against it.”

ft.com/content/800025…
@felschwartz @ChristopherJM When officials point out the economic damage, “he says, ‘We pay a huge price, I get it. We underestimated how difficult it could be.’ But how can you convince a crazy man? His brain will collapse if he realises it was a mistake. He doesn’t trust anyone.”

ft.com/content/800025…

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More from @maxseddon

Feb 22
Invasionpalooza is underway in Moscow's Luzhniki stadium, the site of the 2018 World Cup final, to mark the first anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine.

Mafia-linked crooner Grigory Leps, seen here, was only just recently taken off the US sanctions list
In a sign of how the Kremlin believes spontaneous public outbursts are impossible, you couldn't even buy tickets for this concert.

Per Russian media, state employees and students were paid or forced to go. They shut the doors to stop them leaving before Putin's speech at the end
Read 16 tweets
Feb 21
Putin's state-of-the-union address on the war in Ukraine is underway.

He starts by insisting his decision to invade a year ago was justified. "Step by step, we will accomplish all our tasks carefully and consistently."
Putin says it's the west's fault he invaded Ukraine, because the US and Europe spent years supporting Kyiv.

"Western elites have become a symbol of total, unprincipled lies to their own people," he says.

"They're the ones who started the war. We are using force to stop it."
"The longer-range the weaponry the west supplies to Kyiv, the further we will be forced to drive that weaponry away from our borders," Putin says.
Read 23 tweets
Dec 8, 2022
Russia's foreign ministry confirms the US and Moscow have swapped basketball star Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout, a notorious convicted arms trafficker.

Paul Whelan, another American languishing in Russian prison, was not part of the deal.

t.me/rian_ru/188057
"Washington categorically refused dialogue on including the Russian in the exchange," the Russian foreign ministry says of Viktor Bout. "But Russia nonetheless continued to actively work for our countryman to be freed."

t.me/MID_Russia/245…
This is obviously tough news for Paul Whelan and his family, who have seen him left out of two US prisoner exchanges with Russia now. Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 6, 2022
Latvia's media regulator says it is revoking @tvrain's broadcast license because of "threats to national security and social order."

Russia's only independent news channel set up in Riga just this summer to much fanfare. But the welcome wore out quickly.

@tvrain This will take TV Rain off cable networks, but they'll still continue to broadcast on YouTube.

"We are continuing to work and consider all the accusations against us unfair and absurd," the channel says.

@tvrain Schadenfreude from the Kremlin on @tvrain losing its Latvian license.

"People always think they're better off somewhere else than at home, and that there's freedom there, and unfreedom at home. This is a clear example that shows these illusions are mistaken," Dmitry Peskov says.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 14, 2022
The Russian foreign ministry says this is a "top-class fake."

"Sergei Viktorovich and I are reading the news in Indonesia and can't believe our eyes: turns out, he's been hospitalized 😹," his spox Maria Zakharova writes

t.me/MariaVladimiro…
yes she really did use the cat emoji
Tass posts this picture of Lavrov, who says he is hanging out in his hotel in Bali preparing for the G20 summit t.me/tass_agency/16… Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 4, 2022
Dmitry Medvedev, who you may remember from such roles as "the liberal pretend president of Russia" has written a screed explaining Russia's true goal in Ukraine: "to stop the supreme ruler of Hell, whatever name he's using: Satan, Lucifer, or Iblis"

t.me/medvedev_teleg…
Tag yourselves, I'm недалёкий обыватель из распавшейся западной империи со стекающей по подбородку от вырождения слюной
wouldn't be amazed if Dugin or Prokhanov actually had a hand in ghostwriting this meduza.io/feature/2022/1…
Read 5 tweets

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