Sam Lawhon Profile picture
Feb 24 7 tweets 2 min read
As we enter the new year, many reports have emerged that could be considered anomalous, such as retail sales and payrolls. However, the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) number has brought into focus the message of the #bigflip.
While many pundits have suggested that the current inflationary cycle is a short-lived phenomenon that will transition away, the reality is quite different.
Inflation is becoming more entrenched with every passing day. With wage gains now firmly embedded in the economy, the Federal Reserve will have to take action to shock the business cycle into layoffs.
While this action may have its desired impact, it will coincide with election season, providing an opportunity for politicians to lambast the Fed's "cruel and merciless actions" while promising handouts if elected - leading to increased fiscal impulse.
This is reminiscent of the inflationary era of the 1970s, where the volatility of inflation increased and significant dislocation became more common. After years of quantitative easing and easy monetary conditions, we should now expect the opposite over the coming years.
The #bigflip message is now clear. The longer inflation remains, the more entrenched it becomes, leading to greater volatility and dislocation. As the Fed takes action to control inflation, politicians will seek to capitalize on the opportunity

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More from @lawhon_sam

Jan 27
The market has priced in, with virtual certainty, that the Fed will raise 25bps next week. So then, the real question becomes, what will Powell's language be like?
Powell has been quite consistent in his "higher for longer" messaging, which is consistent with the dot-plot. Another way to look at this is the Fed is focusing less on the velocity of hikes and more on the duration
Market participants have forgotten their oft-used mantra of "don't fight the Fed" when it has negative implications for risk assets and are playing a dangerous game in predicting that the Fed will lower rates into year-end
Read 12 tweets
Jan 6
If you want to be successful at trading you need to understand 3 core things: Market dynamics, timing, and tools
Most start with tools (common stocks/options), try timing (when should I buy or sell?), and finally dabble in the market dynamics. Most fail...🧵
The rub is that many people become decent at one or two disciplines but fail to master all three. You may be great at understanding broad market trends and have a nuanced view of outcomes but don't understand how to effectively put on the trade.
Eg. There were a lot of people who saw the GFC coming but either didn't have the right tools to trade it.
Conversely, you could be an expert at building systems and strategies for different market environments - yet not know when to apply them!
Read 8 tweets
Dec 15, 2022
The majority of the move in equities this year has been driven by the change in the RFR. That is now changing. Equities are pricing in a real earnings recession now, breaking the correlation with yields.
Many pundits will soon claim that risk parity is back, time to pile into bonds! The trouble is that it discards the very real possibility that inflation remains higher for longer. Yes, inflation has undoubtedly peaked. But that doesn't mean it can't remain stubbornly high.
The market is setting itself up for another surprise CPI print that flushes equities lower and shoots yields higher. Sure, inflation could dive in a straight line back to 2% over the next 12 months. The probability of this, however, is quite low.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
It is easy to get lost in the daily noise of the market. All you need to know going into next year is the following:
1. The entire move in equities has been due to yields rising. If we are in the "higher for longer" rates camp, which I certainly am, we will not see equities reprice significantly higher from falling yields next year
2. If the Fed has its way and significantly slows unemployment, earnings will fall - contrary to consensus expectations. Equities will then be forced to reprice lower
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16, 2022
While tech layoffs have made plenty of splashy headlines recently, the reality is that tech workers are only a small fraction of the workforce
Tech-related jobs are only ~3% of the total workforce. There is an argument that this cohort has significant spending power, which will drag on luxury retail (tend to agree here). But, it is still a fraction of the total workforce.
Even though tech layoffs may feel extreme, they are actually still quite elevated compared to pre-Covid levels.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8, 2022
There exists an interesting divergence in narratives between fintwit and Main Street. Amidst a non-stop cycle of engagement seeking, narratives often become heavily regurgitated - resulting in a shorting of the “narrative cycle” 1/
In reality, these narratives often take a much longer time to play out - often leading main street to stick around for too long 2/
On the other hand, I suspect many on fintwit fade the moves far too quickly as the are under the impression that the narrative has been played out 3/
Read 4 tweets

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