Share this page!

Nate Silver Profile picture
Twitter logo
Feb 27 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
This is so refreshingly honest. The Bad People thought the lab leak might be true, therefore as journalists we couldn't be expected to actually evaluate the evidence for it.
The reason this drives me up the wall is that if you're ever going to pretend that "misinformation" is a useful category, at least acknowledge it was a massive error to label lab leak discussion as "misinformation" when multiple US government agencies now put the chances ≥50%.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Nate Silver

Nate Silver Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538

Nate Silver Profile picture
Feb 2
🧵1/ Our biennial forecast self-review is out! There’s lots of detail in the story, please check it out. We think it’s really important to do this. It’s also one of those years where it may clear up some misconceptions.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-o…
2/ Polls (in the aggregate) and forecasts had a good year. Polling averages did ~not~ predict a red wave. They showed a highly competitive race for the Senate and below-average (by historical standards) GOP gains in the House, though with much uncertainty. Image
3/ Democrats did slightly better than expected based on polls/forecasts, but really only slightly, much less than the degree to which the GOP overperformed polls in 2016 & 2020. It was a somewhat surprising year relative to historical norms, but not relative to polls.
Read 10 tweets
Nate Silver Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
This is cool. GOP currently leads 220-215 based on called races + races where they're currently ahead. But, quite a few are uncertain; some key ones below.
4 races where Ds currently lead but the Upshot Needle (as of 4AM last night) had Rs favored:

AZ-1
CA-41
CO-3
WA-3

1 race where Rs currently lead but the Upshot Needle (as of 4AM last night) had Ds favored:

MD-6
5 races where Ds currently lead but the Upshot Needle (as of 4AM last night) rated as tossup:

CO-8
NM-2
NV-1
NV-3
WA-8

4 race where Rs currently lead but the Upshot Needle (as of 4AM last night) rated as tossup:

CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
OR-5

Did this fast so may be errors/omissions.
Read 4 tweets
Nate Silver Profile picture
Nov 8, 2022
Republicans have a 59% chance of winning the Senate, according to our final Deluxe forecast. It's closer in our alternative models: R chances are 51% in the Lite (polls-only) forecast, and also 51% in Classic (polls + fundamentals but no expert ratings). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-…
In the House, Republicans are considerably more definitive favorites: 84% in Deluxe, 82% in Classic and 75% in Lite. Still, you shouldn't round their chances up to 100%. It wouldn't require **that** large of a polling/forecaster error for the House to be competitive.
Longer overview coming shortly.
Read 5 tweets
Nate Silver Profile picture
Oct 28, 2022
Some qualifications on this, and more in some races than others, but our Deluxe model expects Republicans to outperform their current polling by ~2 points or so in the average Congressional race.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/where…
Here is the comparison in the Senate, for instance.
There's not any one simple reason for the gap, it's a few different things that add up. Also not mentioned in the story: Dems will likely perform worse in the *House popular vote* than on the generic ballot because there are a bunch of districts where there's no D on the ballot.
Read 4 tweets
Nate Silver Profile picture
May 19, 2022
Seeing a lot of this sort of sentiment. "Well, there's been no big poll shift after the Roe leak, which means no big effect on public opinion". But I think it's misguided for a couple of reasons. 🧵
1. Polling is noisy, and the generic ballot is particularly noisy. If e.g. Roe shifts the political environments toward Ds by a net of 2 points, that's a fairly big deal; could save them a couple of key Senate seats. But that could take a while to show up in our averages.
2. You wouldn't necessarily expect the shift to show up all at once. Roe *hasn't* been overturned, *yet*. (I presume it will be.) High-info voters know about the leak, but lower-info voters might not, and they're more likely to be swing voters.
Read 6 tweets
Nate Silver Profile picture
Apr 28, 2022
Folks, it's not that hard, the left has moved to the left in the US *and* the right has moved to the right.
You can, of course, complicate the story as much as you want, including by noting that the *Democratic Party* is not synonymous with the left and the Republican Party is not synonymous with the right and the *GOP* has probably radicalized more than the Democratic Party.
But what Elon is encountering on Twitter is not the Democratic Party but left-leaning "thought leaders" (e.g. media, academics, experts, activists) and the leftmost of those folks have moved to the left especially in the *public* sphere (maybe privately not as much).
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(