Thread by @rudrabhoj

The growth in India has already collapsed. It is already doomed. Indian GDP per capita grew by a rate of just 2.5% in last 8 years the current leadership has been in power.

In 2022 USD, per capita GDP was $1927 in 2014, in 2022 it was $2466. This is ~ 2.5% growth per annum!

Let's compare this with the Vajpayee Government+1st year of UPA 1 using 2022 dollars. GDP per capita was $739.72 in 1998, and it was $1065 in 2005. In these 7 years Indian GDP per capita grew by ~5%. This is twice the growth rate we are seeing today!

Why GDP per capita matters, especially one adjusted for inflation? It is generally the BEST proxy for judging the productivity of a large country's economy. GDP numbers especially those not adjusted for inflation are meaningless and tells us nothing about an economy's health.

India can not keep adding more people, this is what it has done up until now to boast of a 'growth rate'. Much of the growth numbers we kang about are created by the historic inflation in the US Dollar and population growth.

It becomes really dark when we look at the fact GDP per capita of the British Raj in 1850 was $1193.46 in 2022 Dollars! It will get worse, and way darker...
GDP per capita of the British Indian Empire, after fighting Hitler and Japan for 6 years straight, was $1400!

It will get worse now. US GDP per capita was $22,795 in the year 1947. So in the year British left India and the princely states were annexed, India's GDP per capita was only 16 times less than that of the US, the greatest super power! Gap is 30x today against a much weaker US.

In light of this, the Indian growth story is nothing but a very rude joke. It was in the year 2007 India surpassed its British Raj era 1947 GDP per capita. 60 years of absolute stagnancy! Only inflation and population rose. Which was used to manufacture the Indian growth story.

Only promise India really saw was following the collapse of Japanese bubble form 1995 to 2005. Credit where due, because of the prime ministers Narasimha Rao and Vajpayee, and finances ministers Manmohan Singh and Jashwant Singh.

If with such a significant technological progress, internet to infrastructure, cheap flights, and what not.... we saw meagre 17% growth in GDP per capita between 1850 and 2007, a century and half! What promise does India really show? Little.

It is a steep warning for investors and businesses who are intoxicated by the propaganda of Indian growth story. You are looking at a basket case economy with highest land cost in the world. Just more technology wouldn't fix it.