Thread by @MarioNawfal

🚨General Mike Minihan expects a US-China war by 2025

Are the Chinese really planning to invade Taiwan? Will the US get involved as Biden confirmed?

Can this all lead to a US-China war, possibly WW3?

(a thread)

Tensions have once again flared up between China and Taiwan.

China sent 25 warplanes and three warships toward Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry claims 19 planes have crossed into Taiwan’s air space and ships are operating in the Taiwan Strait. /1

Is there a real prospect of an all out war over Taiwan between China and the US?

This seems to be a sentiment shared by key US personnel.

Philip Davidson former US Indo-Pacific command said “Chinese threat to Taiwan would ‘manifest’ in the next six years, by 2027” /2

Any war with China is likely to be as a result of breakdown in relations due to Taiwan.

General Mike Minihan in a LEAKED memo said that his gut feeling is that the “US would be at war with China in 2025.”

As such, Taiwan is key to any future war between the US and China. /3

Taiwan is also expecting a full scale INVASION.

Taiwanese defence minister said “China could mount a full-scale invasion by 2025”

Joseph Wu, the Foreign Minister said “China 'more likely' to invade Taiwan - and attack could come in 2027” /4

China on the other hand views Taiwan as a part of its mainland and holds that there is only ‘One-China’.

Therefore any moves made on Taiwan are not an invasion but instead are merely a process of unification.

There is only "ONE-CHINA" and this includes Taiwan. /5

Despite framing this as unification, the US & Taiwan maintain it's an INVASION.

China said they were willing to use FORCE and would take ALL necessary measures.

They are ready and willing to engage in a physical conflict. They are prepared for war. /6

This threat was not an aberration.

In fact China has consistently threatened Taiwan and the US by stating that any attempts to separate Taiwan and seek independence will be punished. /7

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was met with strong vocal opposition from China.

China viewed it as an act of aggression and said that Nancy Pelosi’s visit “has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-U.S. relations” /8

Due to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, including TSMC, the world's largest microchip manufacturer, China was furious.

Joseph Wu said "They fired missiles into the waters near Taiwan. They conducted very large-scale air and sea exercises. They conducted cyber-attacks." /9

The protection provided by the US and its allies to Taiwan has given them confidence.

National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong said “A military invasion of Taiwan will lead to international sanctions and diplomatic isolation” /10

This raises the question, is the protection of Taiwan a requirement or is this a strategic move by the US to have an ally next to China?

How big of a role do microchips play in both country's focus on Taiwan /11

There is no formal requirement for the US to ‘protect’ Taiwan.

So the reason is probably strategic, and Taiwan's microchip manufacturing is likely a big part of this strategy

Also remember, China and Taiwan are separated by the VERY IMPORTANT shipping channel: Taiwan Strait /12

As per the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act the US approach to China and Taiwan is governed by the One-China policy.

Despite this the US will protect Taiwan and any threats to the peace will be a matter of grave concern for the US. /13

In 1982 President Ronald Reagan conveyed 6 points to Taiwan. It lays out the US approach:

1. One-China policy and Taiwan is a part of China

2. Rejects any use of force to settle the dispute

3. Maintains cultural, commercial, and other ties with Taiwan /14

4. Selling arms to Taiwan for self-defense

5. Maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defense

6. Maintain peace and security in the region /15

cfr.org/backgrounder/c…

In December, President Joe Biden signed a defense spending bill of $858 billion of which up to $10 billion would be given to Taiwan for security assistance. /16

President Joe Biden answered “Yes” to the question of whether the US would be militarily willing to defend Taiwan.

He said “That it can be taken by force is not appropriate”

"It will destabilise the region and will be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine” /17

This is the most concerning comment. Biden made parallels with the Russia-Ukraine war.

A war that has seen a significant loss of life and has crippled the economy of many countries.

Is the US ready for another war or is this a political bluff? Can they finance it? /18

When comparing Ukraine and China, Biden said:

“It's a burden that is even stronger”

The question is are we ready for another war?

Or in this case maybe even World War 3? /19