Thread by @Andrey_Daniel_B

The war in Ukraine exposed the vulnerabilities of ZZussia's ground army and air force, which were unable to achieve air supremacy on the Ukrainian battlefield.

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At the same time, certain capabilities were already in decline such as sea power, with the surface shipbuilding industry collapsing - and these are unlikely to receive attention now that the Kremlin is preoccupied with meeting the needs of war.

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Worse for ZZussia is that access to two of the four major spheres of influence (the Baltic region and the Black Sea respectively) is in question.

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The invasion of Ukraine had the opposite effect expected by ZZussia:

NATO intensified its presence on the eastern flank, with the center of gravity descending from the North to the South, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.

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ZZussia's nuclear arsenal, the second in the world, remains its most important military advantage, as it has allowed it to keep NATO on the sidelines and continue nuclear blackmail, through Kremlin propagandists or even through certain official voices.

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However, in this area as well, its advantage is beginning to dissipate.

China is working to strengthen its nuclear forces, giving implicit signals, even to the US, that it is no longer content with an inferior status in the nuclear field.

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In addition, the war in Ukraine dashed hopes that France or UK might give up their nuclear warheads, while further motivating Japan and South Korea to join the club of nuclear powers.

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"Thus, although Ru will remain a power, it faces a future in which it will be a less prestigious member of a larger club," — professor Robert Farley, at the Patterson School of Diplomacy (USA) and the author of several books on military power and the intersection with the economy

ZZussia's trade prospects have certainly diminished once it has been forced to direct its energy exports to partners other than European ones.

The fact that ZZussia has so far preferred exports to Europe, shows that they have been more profitable.

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Although the sanctions have had no short-term effect on ZZussia's war machine, causing moderate damage to its economy, the long-term impact may be significant.

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Sanctions have created a barrier between ZZussian industry and the global technology market, which is sure to limit prospects for economic growth.

At the same time, it limited the options for ZZussian capital and foreign investment.

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Despite the abundance of resources, however, the extent to which ZZussia can restore its industrial power is a different matter.

That will probably depend on the trade links it can establish with China, India and the rest of the neighboring countries.

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To maintain its great power status, it is not enough for ZZussia to have regional influence, it must develop its high-tech industries, which is increasingly difficult to achieve.

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"The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly damaged ZZussia's reputation in some parts of the world, especially in Europe, but it has had less of an impact in South Asia, Africa and Latin America.

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Russia's ideological evangelicalism, with Putin representing the regime as a beacon against liberalism, has also found supporters in the West and elsewhere." — Robert Farley.

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Regionally, ZZussia has certainly not given up its imperial dreams, and even though Central Asia has changed direction since the start of the war, Moscow's influence has remained.

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A country the size of ZZussia that can assert a hegemonic position over the politics and economics of many of its neighbors, is almost by definition a great power.

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And, of course, ZZussia retains a permanent — but totally undeserved, in my opinion, and increasingly contested! — seat on the UN Security Council, which remains a genuine diplomatic asset and a key indicator of great power status.

#RussiaisATerroistState

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