Weeks after the Nordstream attack, the name of a suspected Ukrainian sponsor not affiliated with the Zelensky government was already circulating in western intelligence circles. It was kept quiet to avoid risk of a public spat with Germany.
Western intelligence likely knew the name of the suspected sponsor before the Ukrainian presidential office and ministry of defence, who have been blindsided by the NYT and German reports and furiously deny involvement.
The idea of Ukrainians driving a vehicle laden with explosives through Poland to launch an attack on a German pipeline from German soil will particularly grate large sectors of the German public, jeopardising the country’s support for Ukraine.
Confusion over whether there was a relationship between Zelensky’s government and the saboteurs will breed suspicion. It will embolden those in Germany who are pressuring Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, to curtail military aid, and ultimately harm Ukraine.
That was not the intent of the man who bankrolled the sophisticated operation from his own pocket — involving a yacht, elite divers, forged passports and the procurement of shaped explosive charges only available to gas and oil industry with a specific licence and at great cost.
His name will surely appear eventually, particularly given that he appears to have left a peculiar calling card. Ukraine’s relationship with its allies will fare better if the individual comes clean.
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NEW details on @thetimes story about China hacking Ukraine.
Providing extra details here because it’s important it is taken seriously.
1/ The intelligence memo listing targets is headed “Chinese Attacks on Ukrainian Government, Medical & Education Networks”
2/ Extract from another memo: “Chinese cyber actors have drastically increased their exploitation efforts to focus heavily on Ukrainian government, commercial and high-value infrastructure targets to obtain full access…”
3/ “…Chinese actors initiated this large-scale CNE campaign against Ukrainian targets in mid-February, before the Russian invasion began.”