I see many people bullish on #Arweave. However, network stats currently have a hard time supporting the current valuation. Am I missing something ? Simple Analysis👉 Would appreciate feedback too 🙂
Cost for 1GB is below 7USD and 1TB is 884 AR i.e. 6842 USD right now
Let's take an average of 1.4TB stored each week
So that would be 500k of $AR that would be needed for people that need storage. Which we can consider as the sales p.a. everything being equal
Of course in the future market for data is expected to increase
Arweave has little to no inflation and demand is expected to grow. But does it warrant a price to sales of 1000 based on current figures ?
I know that @MessariCrypto Enterprise produced an analysis on Arweave valuation. Would be interested to have some feedback from community on what is missing in my assessment
We of course have a premium hopium to factor in and technical analysis is a big part of price formation these days. But from a pure financial analysis, AR seems overvalued. Any thoughts ?
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Most of my life as investor (>20y) I chased underdogs and unknown gems, whether on stock markets or in crypto, AND use leverage. Here are the lessons that I learnt.
1. Markets can be a strong addiction and lead you to antisocial and dishonest behaviours. If too deep into it work performance, empathy will be affected.
2. If you use ever growing leverage without reducing exposure, you end up bankrupt. Because the day you loose is when you have the most to loose.
I cut all my positions except $FSN, $CHNG, $CKB and $AZERO and $IOTA. In priority I sold $LINK and $ETH. Why ?
The global markets are obviously in pain and everything has, and will be sold, likely. In my portfolio I chose to keep the non overcrowded trades only. We will see.
I may be wrong. Then I will earn less. But the absence of reaction of LINK to the Swift news is concerning. As for Ethereum the market dynamics is concerning.