With a decision in SEC v @Ripple seemingly nigh, I thought I’d do the stupid thing and predict 5 outcomes:
1. Summary judgement for Chris and Brad - I don’t think the SEC has anywhere near the evidence to support they knowingly or recklessly sold an unregistered security.
1. Summary judgement for Chris and Brad - I don’t think the SEC has anywhere near the evidence to support they knowingly or recklessly sold an unregistered security.
2. Summary Judgement for Ripple in Respect of Overseas sales - Ripple’s sales of XRP on overseas exchanges are not within the court’s jurisdiction. A wholly new precedent would be set to deem those domestic transactions finalised in the US.
3. Summary Judgement dismissing the part of the case that asserts XRP itself is a security - no precedent supports the digital asset itself being a security. This claim was a contrivance for the SEC not to have to prove each sale and to avoid the problem of overseas sales.
4. What proceeds is a limited case about whether any of Ripple’s sales of XRP in the US involved an unregistered investment contract.
5. Because of 2 and 3, the case settles. I happen to believe the SEC underestimated that most of Ripple’s sales occurred on overseas exchanges through algorithmic trading. Once overseas and secondary market sales are excluded, there’s insufficient meat left on the bone.
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