Armand Domalewski Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
people are getting very confused about this whole Silicon Valley Bank / FDIC issue, so here's a thread:

-Majority of accounts over $250k are BUSINESSES, not individuals
-While FDIC is only required to pay out up to $250k, in practice, they tend to arrange a sale...

🧵 (1/?)
1) It would be very bad if we just let every account with over $250k in deposits lose all its money---SVB had almost 40k customers, most of whom are businesses that employ people. You're talking about firing tens of thousands of people because of their bank!
2) While FDIC is legally required to cover up to $250k, in practice the FDIC tries to find another bank to buy the failing bank and try to make all depositors whole. Insured depositors are paid first, uninsured next, and equity holders / lenders last fdic.gov/consumers/bank…
3) FDIC doesn't usually end up putting in a lot of $ at all; whatever the gap is between deposits and liabilities tends to get made up by stockholders and lenders. And anything they do put in is made up for by charging banks higher insurance premiums. FDIC is not taxpayer funded
4) The tl;dr is:

The FDIC is not likely to "bail out" the deposit holders of SVB, it's likely going to make the people who invested in SVB or loaned it money eat the losses, and if does need to put in money, it'll pay for it by charging other banks higher premiums
One final thought: why would another bank be willing to buy a failing bank? Well, for one, they’re gonna be able to “buy” it for free—equity holders in SVB are getting wiped out. For two, banks pay a lot of money to acquire customers—and this hands them a ton of customers!

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More from @ArmandDoma

Mar 22
I’ve seen a lot of genuinely smart people say that there is no biological advantage for people born male over female in sports and not only is that very much *not* the scientific consensus it is also just obviously crazy
trans people deserve to be included and treated equally and none of that is contingent on deluding ourselves about very basic biological facts…
Even on sports I think guidelines should be specific to the sport and the level of competition, men and women compete equally well in shooting for example, but let’s no be silly and pretend you could field an all female NFL team and be competitive…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28, 2024
“squatter’s rights” is basically because well meaning lawyers got good tenant protections passed (your landlord shouldn’t be able to just assert you’re a squatter and kick you out), didn’t really think through that the court systems take forever to resolve these cases, and so created a situation where some bad actors figured out they could squat on a property and run out the clock while living rent free

and this is the story of many many many things in America
political system dominated by lawyers funnels everything through the legal process and then we are surprised when bad actors (who are frankly more often on the landlord side of the equation) take advantage of the arduousness of that process to nakedly abuse the law
But also like the way to avoid these “squatter’s rights” scenarios is to have a rental registry where leases are recorded with the government, but guess who is the biggest opponent of those???

that’s right, LANDLORDS
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28, 2024
I would not have phrased it the way Ben did—I’m glad she spent the money on something positive besides a private jet and cocaine—but if you have a billion dollars to give, reducing the tuition for some of the most affluent people on the planet is not optimal
Because doctor supply is bottlenecked by residency slots, if your goal is to increase the supply of doctors you should try to fund some of those, or even better, lobby Congress to permanently boost those
Again, this isn’t a condemnation. I spent money on a cute new collar for my dog last week that would’ve been more optimal donated to an anti-malaria charity. It’s just worth having a conversation about maximizing bang for your buck in charitable giving
Read 4 tweets
Nov 14, 2023
The Claudia Sahm debacle really validates the Will Stancil thesis that something is deeply wrong with the information ecosystem.

Claudia is someone with impeccable progressive credentials—no one in economist world has gone to war with Larry Summers more than she has. But when even someone with as impeccable a left wing track record as she does looks at the facts and admits basic realities, they get thrown off the island.

The American right did this dance for many decades where they fed what they saw as credulous rubes with deranged propaganda, working hard to chisel away any trust they had in basic factual reporting. And then they were shocked when those “rubes” ate their party and made one of their own, Trump, President!

Conspiracy theories and fever dreams are now mainstream in the GOP, in large part because the elites on the Right thought they could cultivate them to their advantage.

That should be a cautionary tale for those of us on the Left, not a model to embrace.
George HW Bush built his career by flirting with and cultivating the lunatics in the John Birch Society, only to be shocked when the lunatics took over the asylum and locked his family out of power. Democrats who think they can play footsie with their version of reality denying conspiracy theorists are playing with the same kind of fire
And before you say “but the economy really is bad” you need to:

a) find me a datapoint you think proves the economy is bad
b) explain to me why people feel worse about it NOW than when that datapoint was worse in the past
Read 4 tweets
Aug 10, 2023
It’s been a long time since I read it, but why is “Guns, Germs, and Steel” considered racist? I recall the thrust of the book being “Europeans did not colonize the world because of superior genetics or culture, as racists claim, but because of unique advantages of geography” Image
I don’t know how accurate the specifics of “Guns, Gold, and Steel” are, but at a basic level if you don’t agree that Europeans were able to colonize the world because of environmental factors you have to believe it’s because of genetics factors and that is tautologically racist
All human behavior is basically the product of the interaction between their environment and their biology
Read 5 tweets
Jun 16, 2023
MYTHS OF THE OPIOD CRISIS: SOLVING THE FENTANYL CRISIS IS MORE COMPLICATED THAN YOU THINK. 🧵

common refrain you hear during debates about the fentanyl crisis is "you just need to do X to solve the problem"---the unfortunate truth is that we don't actually have good answers yet.
MYTH #1: Forced drug treatment can cure addiction

TRUTH: Most studies on forced drug rehabilitation show poor results---it is hard enough to fix your addiction when you *want* to do it, it is that much harder when you *don't*
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
MYTH #2: Housing first cures drug addiction

TRUTH: Housing First does reduce homelessness. However, there is very little evidence that it reduces drug addiction sci-hub.st/10.1176/ps.62.…
Read 5 tweets

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