Borrow USDT buy discounted USDC betting on a re-pegging event, payoff loan
How do the IPOR USDT swaps look? First leverage was capped at 100x for USDT market, and spreads by the AMM blow up in extreme volatility conditions meaning market is effectively closed unless someone wants to open a Pay Fixed swap at 61.4331%
Both USDC and DAI rates have strong intraday volatility, but nothing compared to the USDT magnitude
On thing that's important to note is that the current issues with both banks is related to duration mismatches on the assets and liabilities which is exacerbated by the bank run scenarios.
The actual book losses are much lower and likely offset by interest rate swaps, however the liquidation of the underlying assets at discount to repay liabilities forces the hand.
So it turns out, Interest Rate Derivatives are a big fucking deal...
Right now is a good time to be level headed and think several steps into the future. What we know is that two US banks have failed- Silvergate and SIVB. Silvergate hurts crypto markets, SIVB hurts everybody.
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First let's look at the exposure to SIVB in USDC. Circle has posted that it has $3.3 billion in cash at SIVB backing USDC. That's 8.2% of the cash reserve so in case of a total loss that would mark USDC down to $0.918.
We're seeing this play out in the markets and directly following a news event you will see the highest reactivity to the event, highest slippage, information asymmetry, and fragmented liquidity. What does that mean?
Imagine you let banks lend to people who can't afford mortgages so the bankers can get bonuses, then step in to bail out those banks
Imagine you printed $25 trillion since then to stimulate economies, also giving contrarians a reason to search for alternatives
Imagine you face a pandemic with first xenophobic exceptionalism, then patchwork measures neither slowing the spread but crippling the economy and with it everyone who lives paycheck to paycheck