I've listened to an interview with a Romanian Army general who comprehensively explained why holding the line in Bakhmut is extremely important for Ukrainians in spite of what some analysts might think. In this thread I will try to summarize what's at stake. /1
If the UA Army retreats from Bakhmut, the next defensive line would be very close to the administrative border of Luhansk. From here it won't be very difficult for the Russians to seize the entire Luhansk. Even if it might take many months, it won't matter that much to them /2
because they have the resources and enough cannon fodder. After that they will go full defense mode and according to every military strategy manual, the attacker loses around 3x more men and resources than the defender. Right now UA is defending but if Bakhmut gets conquered /3
the status will reverse. Which means NATO will have to send 3x more ammunition and weapons to Ukraine given the fact most stocks are already depleted and in some NATO countries the support for UA starts to fade away slowly. For example, at the beginning /4
of the war 60% of Americans were in favor of sending weapons to Ukraine while last month according to a public poll the support dropped to 48%. And it might continue to go down if the living standard continues to deteriorate. /5
That's why is crucial for Ukraine to keep Bakhmut while preparing the counteroffensive. If they succeed in doing so, the Russians will use their resources in the attempt to slow down the counteroffensive leaving Bakhmut and already conquered areas undefended which would bring /6
more opportunities for Ukrainians. Modern war is a logistic game. 7/7
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