A very busy day as spot roundtrips post-CPI from 24k up to 26.4k and back to roughly 24.5k. Options volumes have exploded given recent moves with Deribit 24hr option volumes +$3b.
Unsurprisingly, peaks in implieds coincide with peaks in spot as BTC finally breaks the psychological 25k level. The Mar 26k call has traded in a range of 58v-69v in the past 8 hours.
2/6 🧵
In BTC flows, profit-taking of 26k strikes, rolling up to 30-35k strikes in Apr through Jun expiries.
Downside interest muted in comparison, but hedging program comes in on BTC 31Mar 20k puts and ETH 31Mar 1.4k puts during afternoon selloff.
The Spot/Vol correlation decoupled from the recent status quo in terms of (spot-up/vol-up) as Option buyers started to become cognizant of the potential for further downside.
2/ Term Structure has become heavily backwardated in both $BTC and $ETH with IV’s shifting up significantly across the board.
Term structure richness has continued to climb as short-dated volatility has exploded.
3/ Skew across the board in $BTC and $ETH saw a massive shift towards puts at a premium - even in the longer-dated tenors - as a seemingly one-way flood for downside protection came in toward the end of the week.
On last week’s “The Big Picture”, @jkruy26 discussed lower buyside taker interest since FTX, and the crypto option market feeling more “interdealer” than before.
What does this mean?
1/7 🧵
More buyside takers (hedge funds / family offices / HNW) sitting on the sidelines, and a higher proportion of Paradigm volumes occurring between market makers.
2/7🧵
An options trade is “interdealer” if both the maker/taker operate market making desks as their core business.
All else is “non-interdealer”… think a hedge fund versus market maker.
ETH Dec put spread collar trades in 3k. We've seen more 30Dec downside print lately in both BTC / ETH as traders hedge their books into yearend. Remember BTC Dec 12k/14k last week in ~3000x contracts.
🔥start to the week with Fed hawks Waller and Bullard pouring cold water on 100bps for July giving risk a boost Friday, supported by a softening of 5yr inflation expectations in the Uni Mich survey and the 🌊continues into Monday
1/5 🧵
Adding to the positive mood are expectations that 🇨🇳 will deliver policy easing on Wed. 💲 continues to soften from the post CPI highs. Equities ⬆️ commods ⬆️ bonds ⬇️ in a broad risk on move 🕺
2/5 🧵
💥Crypto🚀led by ETH with ✅ news on the merge plus large 29 Jul call buying fueling a gamma squeeze over the weekend. The tech set up looking favourable too as we break above the 200wma and 50dma. 23.6% fibo of the April/June high/lows also coming in ~1520🧐