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Mar 12 9 tweets 4 min read
Paradigm Block Insights (06Mar - 12Mar) @genesisvol 🧵

What a week… High options volumes amidst the turbulence in markets.

Heavy downside buying alongside spot selloff drove strong moves in skew.

BTC -6% / ETH unch. / NDX -4.3%

🧵1/9 Image
🌊 Paradigm saw takers primarily bid for downside, kicked off by notable protection scooped early in the week, pre-selloff:

2000x Apr 16k/14k/12k Put Fly bought
1000x Mar 19k Put bought

🧵2/9
As the SVB news hit the tape and risk sold off, takers crowded into puts.

2400x Mar 19000 Put bought
1485x 17Mar 18000 Put bought
1000x Mar 21000/19000 Put Spread bought

27k Mar 1200 Put bought
25k Mar 1300 Put bought

Skew has seen a big move across the surface 👇

🧵3/9 Image
🌊 ETH

ETH optionality came alive this week with some massive flows to downside.

27k Mar 1200 Put bot
25k Mar 1300 Put bot

Friday Buy-The-Dip activity:
23k Apr 1700 Call bot
15k Apr 1600 Call bot

Punchy Dec vega sale mid-week H/T @joshua_j_lim



🧵4/9
Notable calendar trade that went up off Paradigm in clips:

$120k vega sold via buying Sep 1900 calls (~30k contracts).

These calls were sold by the overwriter we mentioned earlier this week in our TG commentary.

26k Jun 1700 / Sep 1900
58.5v vs. 59.3v
$51k net vega sold

🧵5/9
Nice to see realized vol perform this week on the downturn in spot. 1m RV trading at 48v and 53v in BTC and ETH respectively.

Vols performed on the weekend as market braces for a surely turbulent week ahead.

2500x Mar 25k Call bot
2000x Apr 24k Call bot

🧵6/9 Image
New episode of TBP is out! 🔊

Kyle Song from Albatross Labs joins us on #TBP this week! 🔥

We discussed recent flows and vol dynamics and how they tie into the macro picture. CME Options, and Bitcoin as Gold 2.0!

Full Episode: 👉

🧵7/9
Rates: The Missing Piece of the Puzzle

Latest The Macro Pulse is out ahead of a HUGE data week👇

TLDR: Broad risk conditions look supportive. If rates reverse, risk and crypto can 🚀

All this and more in the latest Paradigm Macro Newsletter 👇

paradigm.co/blog/the-macro…

🧵8/9
Hit us up on Telegram! 🙏

Daily Commentary✍️ pdgm.co/cmmntry
24/7 Support: pdgm.co/tgsupport
Sign up now! 👉 pdgm.co/3BLEw1Y

🧵9/9

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More from @tradeparadigm

Mar 14
Paradigm EOD Recap 🇺🇸 - 03/14/2023 🟪

A very busy day as spot roundtrips post-CPI from 24k up to 26.4k and back to roughly 24.5k. Options volumes have exploded given recent moves with Deribit 24hr option volumes +$3b.

t.me/Paradigm_Marke…

1/6 🧵
Unsurprisingly, peaks in implieds coincide with peaks in spot as BTC finally breaks the psychological 25k level. The Mar 26k call has traded in a range of 58v-69v in the past 8 hours.

2/6 🧵
In BTC flows, profit-taking of 26k strikes, rolling up to 30-35k strikes in Apr through Jun expiries.

Downside interest muted in comparison, but hedging program comes in on BTC 31Mar 20k puts and ETH 31Mar 1.4k puts during afternoon selloff.

3/6 🧵
Read 6 tweets
Mar 13
1/ Insane last couple of days. 🤯

Let's look at how the Options market reacted. 👇

The Spot/Vol correlation decoupled from the recent status quo in terms of (spot-up/vol-up) as Option buyers started to become cognizant of the potential for further downside. Image
2/ Term Structure has become heavily backwardated in both $BTC and $ETH with IV’s shifting up significantly across the board.

Term structure richness has continued to climb as short-dated volatility has exploded. Image
3/ Skew across the board in $BTC and $ETH saw a massive shift towards puts at a premium - even in the longer-dated tenors - as a seemingly one-way flood for downside protection came in toward the end of the week. Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 13
In addition to everything else going on, we’ve got two important data releases this week: CPI and PPI 🏦 🧵

👇👇👇
US CPI on Tuesday at 8:30am EST

Forecast: 6% YoY

investing.com/economic-calen…
US PPI on Wednesday at 8:30am EST

Forecast: 0.3% MoM

investing.com/economic-calen…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
Paradigm Interdealer Flow in FTX Aftermath🧵

On last week’s “The Big Picture”, @jkruy26 discussed lower buyside taker interest since FTX, and the crypto option market feeling more “interdealer” than before.

What does this mean?

1/7 🧵 Image
More buyside takers (hedge funds / family offices / HNW) sitting on the sidelines, and a higher proportion of Paradigm volumes occurring between market makers.

2/7🧵
An options trade is “interdealer” if both the maker/taker operate market making desks as their core business.

All else is “non-interdealer”… think a hedge fund versus market maker.

3/7🧵
Read 7 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
Paradigm EOD Recap 🇺🇸 - 12/12/2022 🟪

BTC calendars and call spreads trading in good size, as well as some gamma buying ahead of CPI tomorrow / FOMC on Wednesday.

SPX 7D realized is <20v (roughly SPX)...ouch.

1/4 🧵
Top BTC Structures on Paradigm 💥

1. Bought 600x 31-Mar-23 36000 / 30-Jun-23 25000 Call Calendar
2. Bought 500x 31-Mar-23 25000/36000 Call Spread
3. Bought 345x 30-Dec-22 10000/12000 Put Spread
4. Bought 250x 30-Dec-22 16000 Put

2/4 🧵
ETH Dec put spread collar trades in 3k. We've seen more 30Dec downside print lately in both BTC / ETH as traders hedge their books into yearend. Remember BTC Dec 12k/14k last week in ~3000x contracts.

3/4 🧵
Read 4 tweets
Jul 18, 2022
Paradigm Block Commentary 🇪🇺 07/18/2022

🔥start to the week with Fed hawks Waller and Bullard pouring cold water on 100bps for July giving risk a boost Friday, supported by a softening of 5yr inflation expectations in the Uni Mich survey and the 🌊continues into Monday

1/5 🧵
Adding to the positive mood are expectations that 🇨🇳 will deliver policy easing on Wed. 💲 continues to soften from the post CPI highs. Equities ⬆️ commods ⬆️ bonds ⬇️ in a broad risk on move 🕺 

2/5 🧵
💥Crypto🚀led by ETH with ✅ news on the merge plus large 29 Jul call buying fueling a gamma squeeze over the weekend. The tech set up looking favourable too as we break above the 200wma and 50dma. 23.6% fibo of the April/June high/lows also coming in ~1520🧐

3/5 🧵
Read 5 tweets

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