Thread by @thesheetztweetz

Next panel up at #SATShow is about sat-to-cell, with:

ST Engineering iDirect CEO Don Claussen

Iridium CEO Matt Desch

SpaceX VP of Starlink enterprise sales Jonathan Hofeller

Lynk Global CEO Charles Miller

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Desch: "We are very squarely in this satellite-to-cellular conversion space with Qualcomm," with "a whole number of the Android ecosystem" adopting.

"Plan to evolve beyond just cell" to personal computers, autos, etc.

"Satellite should connect everything everywhere"

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Hofeller: SpaceX has a two-fold approach:
1 - Complementing terrestrial towers with cell backhaul
2 - Go beyond complementing to provide high-speed low-latency service, and a LEO constellation as "best equipped to do that."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Miller: We think sat-to-cell "is going to grow to be the biggest category in satellite."

Mobile wireless is "a $1 trillion a year industry and the biggest unsolved problem in the industry is mobile hotspots," so "it's a huge opportunity."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Miller: "If you can't get the cost of the satellite down, when you're mass producing, to well under $1 million then you're in trouble."

"Lynk marginal cost per satellite we have in orbit today is under $200,000"

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Claussen: "As a ground systems providers, we have to figure out how to distill this" into "a single platform."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Moderator: Starlink has 2,500 satellites in orbit? or 3,000?

*Hofeller holds up 4 fingers*

Desch: "Just say a gazillion"

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Hofeller: "We're moving rapidly to a world of abundance when it comes to capacity on orbit."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Moderator: Is there enough launch capacity?

Hofeller: When we were launching Iridium it was once a month, it was unheard of. Now at twice a week, "and it's not crazy to think that the boss will push for more."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Desch: "I believe you should follow the money" in terms of the potential of sat-to-cell, "how much has been invested."

"Investors are pretty smart, unless they're investing in banks in California, and in the last year or two there has been some investment in this year."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Desch: Mobile network operators have not much money behind sat-to-cell, and I believe total investment to date from MNOs in this "is less than $100 million," and "it's probably less than 50."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Miller: I "deeply respect" Desch but it reminds me of Nokia's CEO "in about 2005 or 2006 talking about the iPhone."

"If you're conservative, you wait too long, and you don't have conviction, ... you miss phase change."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Miller: Desch is right that MNOs "are conservative" and "are not Silicon Valley type investors. They're not used to betting risk capital."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Hofeller: "We're definitely wrong, we just don't know how wrong we are" about the opportunity. "We're going to learn a lot by doing -- not necessarily by overanalyzing -- and getting out there, working with the telcos."

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Hofeller: Starlink now has "well over a million users," and SpaceX is building 6 next-generation satellite per day, as well as 1000s of user terminals daily.

@SATELLITEDC @IridiumComm @IridiumBoss @iDirect @SpaceX @LynkTheWorld @NexGenSpace Hofeller: SpaceX plans to "start getting into testing" its Starlink satellite-to-cell service "this year."