Since @Andrew___Baker called for a break day, let's go back to our favorite Twitter activity of 2020... discussing DAGs! I'm very happy that our paper "Causal Inference and Data Fusion in Econometrics" is finally forthcoming in the Econometrics Journal. academic.oup.com/ectj/advance-a… 1/
In this paper, we review the advances that have been made in the causal AI literature in recent years and discuss their value for empirical work in econometrics and adjacent disciplines (such as political science, sociology, and management). 2/
We're not the first to discuss DAGs from an econometric perspective. Several famous scholars, including Jim Heckman, Hal White, and Dan McFadden were engaging with the topic before. Perhaps most notably, Guido Imbens published his comparison of .. 3/ aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
.. DAGs and the potential outcomes framework in JEL in 2020. I wrote an entire series of Twitter threads, in which I discuss the points made in the paper and explain where I disagree, back then. You can find them searching for the hashtag #EconBookClub.
What was clear to us though is that none of these papers actually capture the current state of the art in the literature. So much has happened since 2009, when the 2nd ed. of Causality by @yudapearl, that we thought a survey of the latest advances would provide a lot of value. 5/
With the huge publication lags in econ it's actually quite hard to produce an up-to-date review of the fast-moving AI literature. And probably we could already start writing on a part 2 by now — which we actually should do at some point... 6/
But the paper will hopefully give you a good overview of the fundamental mechanics of the graphical framework to causality and an impression of how powerful it is in tackling some of the most thorny problems in applied empirical work. 7/
If you've seen an earlier version of the paper, you might want to have a second look. During the revision process, we've added several new examples for the backdoor and frontdoor criteria, as well as recovering from selection bias and identification by surrogate experiments. 8/
The paper will appear as part of a special issue on the works of Philip G. Wright, the inventor of IV and father of Sewall Wright, who developed path diagrams — an early version of DAGs. I'm happy that it will be joined by several fantastic contributions from other colleagues. 9/
The preprint version of the paper is available on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/1912.09104 Let us know what you think. We're curious to hear your feedback! 🙏 10/10
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We just posted a substantially expanded version of our paper "On the Nuisance of Control Variables in Regression Analysis" (w/ @beyers_louw): arxiv.org/abs/2005.10314
Main message: Don't bother reporting the coefficients of controls, because they are likely to be biased anyway.
Citations for the arXiv version are coming in nicely, so people seem to find the paper useful. The succinct format as a research note seems to be appreciated too. But some of the more intricate aspects of the argument might have been a bit glossed over in the previous version.
In the new version, we have expanded the theory part. We now show more DAGs and simulations that demonstrate under which conditions estimated effect sizes of control variables can be interpreted causally.
Jetzt kann man natürlich der Meinung sein, dass es keine gute Sache ist, wenn Professor:innen so viel nebenbei machen. Für den Wissenstransfer muss das aber gar nicht so schlecht sein. 🧵 1/9
Eine interessante Fallstudie dazu liefert die Abschaffung des sogenannten "Professorenprivilegs" in 2002. Mein ehemaliger Advisor an der KU Leuven, Dirk Czarnitzki, hat dazu ein interessantes Papier. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… 2/9
Das Professorenprivileg erlaubte es Lehrstuhlinhabern, anders als anderen Angestellten nach dem deutschen Erfindergesetz, über die Vermarktung von Erfindungen die während der Ausführung der beruflichen Tätigkeit gemacht werden, frei zu entscheiden. 3/9
Happy to see our paper "The Choice of Control Variables: How Causal Graphs Can Inform the Decision" (w/ @beyers_louw & M. Rönkkö) included in the best paper proceedings of the 82nd Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management. #AOM2022@AOMConnectjournals.aom.org/doi/epdf/10.54… 1/5
We present practical recommendations on how to choose suitable control variables for regression analyses – a topic which seems to cause quite some confusion in the management literature (if you ever read the phrase "if in doubt leave out" you know what I'm talking about). 2/5
The best paper proceedings include abridged versions (max. 6 pages) of selected papers that will be presented at #AOM2022. Our session (#1088) is scheduled for Aug 8 2022 from 8:00AM to 9:30AM local Seattle time. You are all very welcome to join! 3/5
This is my favorite teaching example for showing the importance of #CausalInference: @Google conducts an annual pay equity analysis in which they use fairly advanced statistical techniques. In 2019 they found that they were actually underpaying MEN?! npr.org/2019/03/05/700… 1/
What do they do specifically? They collect a lot of data (as Google does) and then run OLS regressions of annual compensation on demographic variables (gender, race) and other explanatory variables such as tenure, location, and performance. services.google.com/fh/files/blogs… 2/
If they find statistically meaningful differences, @Google is actually committed to make upward adjustments for the disadvantaged groups. In this case it was male, level-4 software engineers who got a raise. 3/