Ian Mitchell Profile picture
Mar 13 12 tweets 3 min read
The UK Govt has updated its #IntegratedReview of foreign, defence, diplomacy and development.

10-point thread on the implications for #development

Overall, UK development policy is past its nadir but still short of development leadership.
1. First, there are some big improvements to the overall approach:

- very little boasting/ boosterism;
- it actually mentions Europe;
- the commitment to multilateralism is consistent and strong
2. As well as four (sensible) pillars; the document has geographic and thematic focuses. Image
3. The geographic is disappointing on development -

Doesn’t offer any reassurance the UK will re-focus on Africa, or the poorest countries (poverty only mentioned twice in 63 pages).

Sadly, Minister Mitchell seems to lack PM/ wider support for this basic commitment.
4. For Africa, it does suggest a much-needed

"greater appreciation of the needs and perspectives of key partners across the continent”

And concretely, it supports an African seat at the G20 and UN security council; and another African Investment Summit in 2024
5. The thematic section is much stronger.

No 1 priority is climate change, environmental damage & biodiversity loss - it recognises up front that climate effort starts at home.

Sustainable development (and the SDGs) is no2.
6. The refresh adds 7 initiatives to deliver last summer's development strategy 4 priorities. These are good and include:

“reforming and greening the global financial system” and

“championing fairer global tax systems”

Plus specifics on the women & girls priority. Image
7. Three other positives

- explicit contrast with the US: the system cannot be ‘democracy versus autocracy’

- importance of working with “middle-ground powers” to avoid “zero-sum competition”.

- supporting Brazil, India, Japan & Germany to join the UN Security Council.
8. Two new things for UK development watchers are:

- the Development Minister will attend the National Security Council
- @FCdO will get a second permanent secretary focussed on development.

These are positive, but not transformative.
9. So, what’s missing? Resources.

Defence gets £5bn but nothing on development => a 4th consecutive year of bilateral cuts in 2023.

The review barely mentions refugees which absorb 25% of UK’s aid. No commitment to separating these lines.

No mention of return to 0.7%.
10. Overall, the refresh makes some important steps for the UK re-engaging with Europe, support for multilaterals and good thematic and reform focus - held still held back by a lack of political leadership from PM on funding development sensibly.

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More from @EconMitch

May 6, 2022
Where are we on the 2022 food price spike?

The FAO released its latest food price index today, 10 weeks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a spike in grains and vegetable oils.

A few developments this week, a thread:
1. The FAO confirmed that prices in April steadied - albeit at a record high, 60% above the 2014-16 average
2. This will lead to hunger and major humanitarian challenges - the head of the @WFP says they will need to "take food from the hungry to give it to the starving"
Read 9 tweets
Feb 11, 2022
The EU is planning a tax on African carbon with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (C-BAM)

Our new analysis shows material -ve impacts on some African economies.

@SPleeck, Fatima Denton @UNUINRA, and I analyse impacts and implications for #EUAUSummit.

Thread:
1. The EU’s C-BAM should reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions by preventing ‘leakage’ to places without carbon pricing. The most-affected imports are from middle-income countries inc China, Russia

But the impact for some African economies will be very significant
2. The worst-affected is Mozambique via its aluminium exports.

It’s plausible C-BAM could reduce Mozambique's GDP by over 1 per cent.

The EU recognises that Mauritania, Sierra Leone and Senegal will also be negatively affected. Algeria and Egypt too.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8, 2021
With the UK's aid commitment being debated a commonly-cited argument (inc by @BBCNews) against it is

"A household that is having to borrow every year wouldn’t give to charity: it should pay off its own debts first”

Four reasons this analogy is wrong and the counter-arguments:
First, the Government isn’t a household - it won’t die, or retire, so the imperative to pay off debt isn’t the same. Indeed, as this @ICAEW chart shows, every G7 economy is in debt, the UK not particularly so.
Second, the assertion ignores assets - using the logic of the original statement, no household with a mortgage would give to charity until it was paid off. This is clearly not the case. In the UK's case, Govt. assets include our reputation & institutions (Parliament, BoE etc).
Read 6 tweets

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