Thread by @DefenceProf

#AUKUS

some initial thoughts - a thread.

1. The move to a tri-lateral design and a UK-AUS build is a good one. The UK will deliver SSN AUKUS boat 1 helping to de-risk the Australian build. This is smart given the high risk of a first in class of any maritime platform. Smart

2. The decision to sell Aus Virginia's is massive. let not underestimate how fwd leaning this is from the US. Esp given the shortage of boast in the USN. This is integrated deterrence in action and a firm US commitment to this concept and Aust.

3. This pathway means that not all Collin's Class boat might have to get LOTE - possible only 4 out of 6. This will be a decision for a future govt but it provides flexibility and potential cost and workforce savings. it will also give some flex for a strategic reassessment later

4. 2033 Aus will get its first Virginia, then again in 2036 and 2039. SSN AUKUS #1 for the RAN will arrive in 2042. The option for 2 more Virginia's also gives flexibility in case of delays et al for AUKUS boats.

5. Cost - $368B AUD is MASSIVE - lets not underestimate this. HOWEVER - no one know inflation and cost ins 2054. Treasury can't get estimates right most years let alone the fwd estimates. so 2054 costs are a total guess. Also no other country does costs this way.

6. this is about continuous build so costs are relative to ongoing capability development for decades after the 2050s. this spreads the cost even further. That said everything is an opportunity costs. both for Defence and the rest of the economy.

7. But if the world was benign then this would not be happening. The PRC has the worlds largest navy. Has undertaking the biggest military expansion since WWII and has built 12 nuclear powered (and armed) submarines in the last 15 years. By 2042 - AUKUS Boat #1 - they will...

have 70+ submarines in service.

8. Infrastructure costs will be huge. this will generation lots of job - but we cant fill them already. the RAN will need many more submariners but we already have a major shortage.

9. while this pathway is excellent IMHO - it carried huge risk, potentially huge cost and there are many many decisions points to come.

10. With the optimal pathway announced we are now at the end of the beginning, but we are still decades away from the beginning of the end. Lots could go right and lots could go wrong over the next 30 years. in the end is it worth it - at this stage i would say definitely.

11. but ask me again, every year, for the next 50 years! END.