Thread by @imillhiser

So in the likely event that Trump Judge Matty Kascmaryk bans mifepristone, here’s what we can expect next:

🧵

DOJ will seek an emergency stay from the Fifth Circuit as fast as it can review Matty’s opinion and draft a motion. They will likely lose. The Fifth Circuit is dominated by highly-partisan Republicans like Kyle Duncan.

Then it goes to SCOTUS. I think there’s a real chance that SCOTUS grants a stay — there is no legal basis whatsoever for banning mifepristone, which was approved 23 years ago. The statute of limitations to file this suit is six years.

However, the GOP-controlled SCOTUS’s practice, when the Biden administration asks for an emergency stay from a hack judge like Kascmaryk has been to deny the request. So there’s a real risk that Matty’s order could remain in effect for months or more.

If SCOTUS denies the temporary stay, the question of whether to permanently reverse Matty will still be on appeal. The Fifth Circuit gets the first shot. And it may intentionally delay its ruling to leave Matty’s decision in place for as possible. DOJ will likely lose again.

Most likely after the Fifth Circuit rules, SCOTUS will hear it again. I would be surprised if even this SCOTUS allows such a lawless order to remain in effect forever, but there’s no guarantee DOJ wins.

Depending on what Matty the K’s opinion says, FDA may also try to bypass him by reapproving mifepristone. Although I’m told that process could also take months.

So buckle up. Looks like shit is about to get super lawless.