Sridhar Vembu Profile picture
Mar 16 5 tweets 1 min read
1/ The Credit Suisse crisis demonstrates yet again the extreme fragility of the global financial system, caused by decades of central bank madness, with endless QE distorting financial markets & the real economy beyond recognition, causing massive inequality & other social ills.
2/ This hyper-financialized regime of debt driven "growth" cannot be sustained. The problem today is that global policy makers, particularly central bankers in the developed world, know no other play book than yet more QE and curing extreme debt with yet more debt and bailouts.
3/ Inflation is the inevitable consequence, and as long as inflation was confined to asset markets (stocks, bonds, real estate) it all seemed to work. We have now reached a point where the real economic distortions of decades of ultra-easy money have led to loss of productivity.
4/ At this point, repeating their old playbook of yet more QE & endless bailouts can only lead to an hyper-inflationary endgame. That is why I focus on basics: grow more food, build lower cost housing, affordable education & healthcare & importantly, learn to live well on less.
5/ Back to Basics: that summarizes my approach on how to cope with the impending economic dislocations central bankers have all but ensured for the world.

I know from experience back to basics helps us be happier and more rooted as well, so this approach is good on its own. 🙏

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More from @svembu

Mar 14
1/ With vicious personal attacks and slander on my character, it is time for me to respond.

This is a deeply painful personal thread. My personal life, in contrast to my business life, has been a long tragedy. Autism destroyed our lives and left me suicidally depressed.
2/ My wife Pramila and I were in this fight against autism for over 15 years. She is a super mom and her passionate cause is curing our son of autism. I worked hard along with her. To ensure his safety I also took some of his treatments so I could know what they did to him.
3/ As our son got older (24 today) I felt the endless treatments he was under were not helping much and he would be better off in rural India, closer to loving people and helping to lift up people. She felt I was giving up. Our marriage collapsed under that stress.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 14
1/ Rural Hindu society increasingly runs on the shoulders of overburdened women. Alcoholism among men and loan sharking are causing enormous suffering. Men feel trapped in these vices and all too often choose suicide in despair.

These problems have to be addressed holistically.
2/ As a first step, our media and elites should not promote a drinking culture.

I have emphasized to our employees that drinking may be their private choice but as a company we frown upon public displays. I frequently warn our people that public drunkenness will get them fired.
3/ We also must recognise the deep despair in rural areas arising from structural economic changes caused by agricultural hardship and the decline of rural craftsmen and artisans - weaving, pottery, vessels, local machinery, vehicles, all of those self employed have disappeared.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 28, 2022
1/ How can India produce globally competitive companies like Apple, Google, Pfizer, Samsung, Honda, Boeing, Siemens, TSMC or Huawei?

Why are these companies so important to their host nations?

Is India on a path to producing these companies?

I will explore these quesrions.
2/ First let me answer the "Why" question. These companies are extremely important to their host nations because they embody within themselves the advanced know-how and R & D capabilities essential for modern life and nationhood. Most critical R & D happens within such companies.
3/ These companies enjoy a disproportionate share of economic value added as well as profits (compared to their direct effect on employment) and also pay heavy taxes to their host nations both through their well-compensated employees and directly as corporations. That's the why.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 11, 2022
1/ One argument advanced against freely tradable import credits whose total quantity is tied to total exports is that it takes us back to License Quota Raj or that it is "socialist".

In fact, its purpose is to mimic the gold standard so that our foreign debt is kept in check.
2/ The gold standard is useful precisely because gold is scarce. Scarcity is the essence of being money. Bitcoin limits the total quantity of Bitcoin that will ever be mined.

The essence of the market mechanism is to allocate scarce resources.

Import credits work the same way.
3/ The only restriction on import credits is that their total quantity is tied to exports. Subject to this scarcity constraint, they trade freely and the market determines the price.

Government does not set the price not does it determine who gets to buy the credits.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
1/ When Warren Buffett proposed balancing US external trade by introducing the idea of freely tradable import credits whose total quantity is tied to export volume, economists dismissed it. That was in 2003. The US runs a far bigger trade deficit today & is in worse shape now.
2/ Let us review the primary argument the economists made and often still make: the trade deficit is merely a reflection of the fact that foreigners have a huge demand for US assets, and that reflects the strength, safety and liquidity of US financial markets.
3/ Here is the first problem. The financial asset foreigners have been buying the most is US government debt. US has been issuing ever greater quantities of debt, denominated in its own currency, to foreigners. At least since it is its own currency, it is not Sri Lanka.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
1/ India imported 31% more from China so far in 2022 while exporting 36% less.

Chinese economy is so structurally distorted, it can only produce and not consume. As a recent example, they ran factories during lockdowns but closed shopping malls.

What can India do?
2/ If India passively accepts China's structural distortion, we risk heavily distorting our own economy to consume without producing and that would change our jobs mix towards token distribution jobs whose purpose is to create income to consume imported goods.

We must resist.
3/ Economists like Prof Panagariya believe in what I call "naive free trade theory" that simply is not even aware that there is such a thing called structural distortion because it is not part of their toy models.

Warren Buffet proposed a simple and elegant solution.
Read 5 tweets

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