Thread by @LandfSmile

During Feb, I produced a Comp Analysis of @CamelotDEX $GRAIL

Price was approx. $1,700 w/ potential 30%+ upside based on its peers - A lot changed Since Then

In this 🧵- We Look at March Update to the Analysis

Gauging whether $GRAIL is Undervalued or Overvalued 👇

(0/10)

(1/10)

0️⃣ Disclaimer

🔹My $GRAIL Assumptions of Annualized Volume, Fees, Rev remain the same as my last post on early Feb

🔹Added in $JOE to the Comp Set

🔹Added in Market Cap as Valuation Metric

🔹The Analysis ONLY takes into account the Metrics shown

🔹NFA - DYOR

(2/10)

1️⃣ General Methodology

🔸Peers Criteria: Top 3 DEX on Arbitrum (Uniswap, Sushi, Joe)

🔸Valuation Metrics: FDV & MCap (with focus on MCap as $GRAIL mechanics are particularly good at keeping circ cap low)

🔸DEX Metrics: Vol, Fees & Revenue

(3/10)

2️⃣ FDV Multiples

💠FDV/Fees, FDV/Vol, FDV/TVL show that $GRAIL is Overvalued in relative to all of its Peers
(Lower better, Low = Undervalued)

💠FDV/Rev of $GRAIL is less than $JOE's

🔴$GRAIL's FDV is High Value possibly due to it being #1 Arbitrum Ecosystem DEX

(4/10)

That provides

① Intuitive UI/UX with Seamless Swaps

② #RealYields in the form of USDC, ETH, GRAIL

③ Flexible Launchpad for Great Projects

④ Liquidity Hub for Projects with Camelot providing great incentives for Partner Projects

And so many more reasons...

(5/10)

3️⃣ Market Cap Multiples

💠 This is where EVERY Market Cap Metrics, $GRAIL is Greatly Undervalued compared to its Peers

🟢 Main reason why is that $GRAIL Market Cap is REALLY LOW due to the LOW Circ Cap of $GRAIL as a result of
➙ xGRAIL Vesting
➙ xGRAIL Utilities

(6/10)

➙ xGRAIL Incentives

Basically, $GRAIL holders are incentivized to stake their $GRAIL in order to get

① Access to 30%+ Annual Real Yields

② Access to New Project Whitelists in the Launchpad

③ Potential Airdrop (As seen with $TROVE)

④ Access to LP Multiplier

(7/10)

4️⃣ Expected $GRAIL Price Based on Metrics

🟠When looking at FDV Metrics, $GRAIL trades within the range of $406 - $3,667■

🟢If we look at MCap Metrics, $GRAIL trades with the range of $3,554 - $37,684

(8/10)

5️⃣ Potential Upside & Downside

🟠 For FDV Metrics, the Downside is 33% - 86% Down based on the current price

🟢 With MCap Metrics, the Upside is 30% - 1,274% Up based on the current price

(9/10)

6️⃣ Indicative Price / Upside

■ Taking the Average of FDV Price - We get $1,284

◇ Taking the Average of MCap Price - We get $12,128

Assuming MCap is a better proxy for $GRAIL Valuation, I decide to put 70% weight on MCap Price & 30% weight on FDV Price

(10/10)

➡ The Indicative $GRAIL Price is $8,874 which constitutes an Upside of 324% from the Current Price

(From ($1,284 * 0.3) + ($12,128 * 0.7))

▷ Don't fade $GRAIL and get left out on this potential 324%

Don't tell me I didn't warn ya!

I hope you've found this thread helpful.

Short thread so no Potato this time

Follow me @LandfSmile for more PAMPIN ALPHA & ANALYSIS.

Like/Retweet the first tweet below if you can:

https://twitter.com/LandfSmile/status/1636422802315288577

Tagging CT
@milesdeutscher

@Route2FI

@defi_mochi

@Defi_Maestro

@rektdiomedes

@Crypt0_Andrew

@karl_0x

@DefiIgnas

@LouisCooper_

@crypto_linn

@0xTindorr

@blocmatesdotcom

@CryptoShlug

@MoonKing___

@AndrewMoh_

@CrossChainAlex

@ViktorDefi
@SirBootsOfIron

Note:

Misplaced the FDV and MCap of Uniswap there 😅

Sorry guys