Thread by @BrynnTannehill

A lot of people were shocked and dismayed when Governor DeSantis repeated Kremlin talking points about Ukraine, and declared that the US doesn't have a national interest there. Ron isn't dumb, and he served in the Navy.

There's a logical explanation. 1/n

thehill.com/homenews/state…

"Moderate" (and I use the term very loosely) Republicans were appalled by this, and denounced it quickly. Something that Democrats and Republicans can still find common ground on is National Security. 2/n thehill.com/homenews/39022…

But, there's a VERY good reason he's probably doing this: it just takes war-gaming the situation out a bit and understanding the motivations of some of the key players.

First: DeSantis wants to be President, and will do whatever it takes. 3/n

He's not a nice or compassionate person: if a bunch of Ukrainians end up raped, enslaved, or dead, so be it. If Russia ends up in a great strategic position, it's worth it to save the US from "wokeism", abortion, and trans people (he is a true believer). 4/n

The other key player here is Vladimir Putin. Putin will do whatever it takes to stay in power, and that requires at least hanging on to the territory Russia has already taken. To do that, he needs to get the US to drop support for Ukraine, or even better, leave NATO. 5/n

Trump has already promised these things, and Tucker Carlson is one of the most popular TV personalities in Russia.

If the US withdraws support, Ukraine is screwed.

If the US stays the course, eventually our manufacturing capacity will overwhelm Russia. 6/n

Putin may view the survival of his regime as contingent on winning in Ukraine. The surest way to win is to induce the US to withdraw support. Thus, getting the US to withdraw support is seen in the long run as a matter of regime survival. 7/n

We know that Russian bots and trolls interfered in the 2016 elections. Since then, AI and manipulation has gotten better. Simultaneously, we've seen institutional capture of Twitter, TikTok, and FB by largely pro-Russian leadership. 8/n

Twitter in particular has hollowed out any capability to detect or defend against manipulation. Given how the platform is hemorrhaging money, they're also susceptible to taking money from less than forthright sources to do things that favor Russian activities. 9/n

With Putin seeing the 2024 election results as key to his regime's survival, and defenses down across a number of social media platforms, I expect Russia to go all-in on manipulating the 2024 election. 10/n

They will do the mental calculations and push the most electable pro-Russian candidate in the field.

I believe DeSantis is making these same calculations. He's very smart, very calculating.

Only 9% of the US has a favorable opinion of Russia. 11/n news.gallup.com/poll/471872/am…

Thus, DeSantis knows that he's not going to make great electoral gains by taking a pro-Russia position. His words aren't for his base or the US public.

They're for Russia. He's trying to head off Russian manipulation efforts to help Trump at his expense. 12/n

IOW, he wants to make sure that future Russian interference efforts aren't directed against him, and might even throw in behind him if they decide he's pro-Russian enough, and more electable than Trump.

He's looking for Putin's (very substantial) support. 13/n

It's cynical, Machiavellian, amoral, and completely like him. It's also a completely logical explanation for what we're seeing as he spouts nonsense about Ukraine (6% of the DoD budget is currently halving Russian capabilities every year) 14/n