One of the big debates we hear is whether guaranteed money with LIV will cause players to practice less, lose their edge, and simply play worse since there’s less on the line.
The beauty of TUGR is we can measure this.
A 🧵…
2/11
Since we use head-to-head performance, every stroke counts and everyone is benchmarked against the #1 players in the world.
Let’s look at some numbers just in an few short months of 2023. With LIV players playing around the world, we have plenty of numbers to use…
3/11
At the beginning of 2023, using TUGR rankings of course:
12 LIV players in top 50
22 LIV players in top 100
The 50th ranked player on avg shot 1.71 shots/rd worse than the #1 ranked player.
The 100th best player on avg shot 2.17 shots/rd worse than the #1 ranked player.
4/11
Today:
9 LIV players in the top 50
21 LIV players in the top 100
The 50th ranked player on avg shot 1.61 shots/round worse than the #1 player in the world.
The 100th best player on avg shot 2.12 shots/round worse than the #1 player in the world.
5/11
Alright, let me break this down.
At first glance you would think LIV players are getting worse bc there are fewer top 50 and 100 players within their ranks.
This isn’t exactly true…
6/11
You see, the Relative Strokes metric, how we rank players in TUGR, is a moving target bc, hence the name, it’s “relative” to the best player in world.
So a player could fall in the rankings without actually losing relative strokes if others behind him are playing better…
7/11
That’s what’s happening here in the first two months of 2023.
It’s not that LIV players are playing worse golf relative to their PGAT peers, it’s actually that, as a whole, PGAT players are playing better golf relative to the #1 player in the world….
8/11
Look back at Tweet 3 and 4 of this chain and compare the Relative Strokes numbers to each other. You can see both the 50th and 100th ranked players improved ever so slightly (they’re closing the gap).
Here’s your “ah ha” moment…
9/11
If the Relative Strokes had stayed the same from January until now, LIV would have:
12 players in the top 50
23 players in the top 100
Exactly same on the top 50 and one better in the top 100 from January.
What does this mean…
10/11
LIV players as a whole have incrementally improved their level of play relative to January, it’s just that PGAT players have incrementally improved their level of play slightly more.
So going back to the original question…
11/11
Does guaranteed money lessen the level of play for LIV?
So far, no, that’s not the case, and the numbers show it.
It’s been a bit since we highlighted the methodology of The Universal Golf Rankings (TUGR) and why we believe it’s the purest way to rank golfers, as well as the most accurate in this new world of divided tours.
To all the new followers, here’s the rundown…
(2/5)
Most ranking systems in golf, including OWGR and the new SI rankings, are what we are calling a “points-based” system.
Essentially they create a scoring system and award points based on a number of factors and assumptions that go into their black-box formula…
(3/5)
Their weightings, assumptions, and imbedded biases spit out a number, and poof, that’s how they rank golfers.
Through this whole process, accuracy is lost.
At TUGR, we have found a better way to accurately rank all golfers without using convoluted formulas…
Does a two-tiered PGAT system actually make it more likely for really good PGAT players stuck in the two-tiered purgatory to jump to LIV?
It's really just game-theory...
2/9
Let's say for two consecutive years you finish 52nd and 59th in the #FedExCup. Missing out on easy guaranteed money the next year by such a close margin.
What if LIV comes calling?
You're probably a top-100 player in the world, or close to, if you're doing that well...
3/9
... and LIV is always going to be looking for Top-100 players to pad their ranks.
They offer a contract. 4 years, guaranteed money. They've got some smart people so they back into what you'd probably make over the next 4 years, and then they 2.5x that number...
A quick trip down memory lane and how TUGR was born from a trip like we took in 2018…
We were on our annual trip which that year took us to Sawgrass.
This is a cropped picture of the Champions Locker Room where we were lucky enough to get a tour…
After playing 18, we grabbed dinner on the patio. I don’t know his name, but a man who did something important there came to our table and started talking to us.
He found out that our golf pilgrimage that year had brought up to Sawgrass. A family affair every year…
He clearly was someone in charge, bc he then invited us to take a tour, and next thing you know we’re in the Champions locker room and sitting in the barber chair and looking at all the names. What a cool experience…
As Professional golf continues to get more divided, not unified,
A quick thread on why TUGR is built to accommodate this division.
On a recent podcast I speculated what if within 5 years “another” tour pops up to lure away the top players…
2/6)
Little did I know it would be the PGAT dividing itself into two-tiers that would fulfill this prediction.
I suppose “another” tour could still pop up, but the point is that “points-based” rankings will keep falling behind with their accuracy in this divided state….
(3/6)
These systems will start looking more like the GHIN handicap system where each course and tournament get some sort of rating that is nearly impossible to have uniformity and accuracy…