Thread by @FactChecker23

Why is a Skilled and Trained Workforce requirement problematic for construction of housing in California?
It comes down to this:
1) it reduces job opportunities for hundreds of thousands of workers to work prevailing wage jobs, including ≈100,000 union members.
Thread
/1

... and
2) the math of producing a lot more housing quickly doesn't work to restrict a large % of "Skilled and Trained Workforce" jobs for graduates of apprenticeships.

1) is simple to explain.
There are 330k residential construction workers ...

/2

>=90% of California's 330k residential construction workers are non-union & not apprenticeship grads.
CA needs them for housing production. They need a raise.

Also, ≈100k bldg trades union members w/o apprenticeship completion ought to have an equal shot at housing jobs

/3

2) Practical case study: pipetrades
• CA’s EDD projects 10,760 total job openings for employed CA plumbers 2022-24, or 5,380 per year, *w/o* extra housing production.
• 2-yr avg annual apprenticeship grads for union plumbers, pipefitters, & sprinkler fitters: 650 (12% of☝️)
/4

Most of the current 5,650 active plumbing registered apprentices & recent grads (some of whom are unemployed) work on *nonresidential* commercial & industrial projects.

(1,500 new registrations convert into completions at a 50%-60% rate, or 750-900 in a high-level year)

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At ≈1 construction worker/housing unit, 10% of which are plumbers (based on SF affordable housing payroll records), 100k units of hsg w/ "Skilled and Trained" requirements ≈ *⃣10,000*⃣ plumbers, of which:
* 50% S&T apprentice grads
* 33% "skilled"
* 17% apprentices

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From above it's obvious that the STW formula privileges a subset of current union members at the expense of those who either are new or who acquired experience outside of an apprenticeship.

again, most housing workers didn't go through apprenticeship.
/7

Over 22 years union plumbing apprenticeships graduated a total of 12,741.

Again, if streamlined private or publicly funded housing can pump up production by +100k units (which we need!), we'd need 5,000 plumber apprentice grads STAT, or 580% of last year's *peak* grad total.

/8

A contractor that commits to employ a Skilled and Trained Workforce makes themselves liable for penalties for noncompliance at a rate of $200 per worker per day that is out of compliance. That's $24k for a crew of 10 out of compliance with a 60% grad requirement for a month.

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Who takes the bet that the requisite credentialed workers will be available at the time the contractor has to perform the work, given the hefty penalties for failure?

Hard to know, but here is an indicator suggestive that the answer is ... not many.

/10

No streamlined housing units were built with skilled and trained workforce requirements 2018-2022.
Bldg permits for 63 STW-covered units were issued this January; one big project is dormant.
Many multiples of Prevailing Wage-only streamlined housing units are under construction.

Actual jobs for workers paid family-sustaining prevailing wages while producing affordable housing.
80+% of the prevailing wage-only units have been built with union labor.
Want to pump up opportunities for union members - existing and new - to build housing?
Pass #SB423!
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#SB423 requires contractors on streamlined housing to pay prevailing wages & offer apprentices employment opportunities.
Per a IBEW official who advises that union's International President, those are
an "established set of principles."

/end

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