Thread by @Tima_Yu

#CreditSuisse
As reported, "support of up to 50 billion Swiss francs by the Swiss National Bank" was announced, but the share price fluctuated "from $2.1 to $2.2." Now we are starting to see a downtrend again.

Given the current situation, I am skeptical of the argument that

https://twitter.com/AhmadRami80/status/1637787423441600515

"there are too many assets, so that's okay".

In my opinion, there is a further sharp decline in the share price, and the possibility of "bankruptcy" will increase.

The reason for this is the following three factors.

1) Credit Suisse has seen a “rapid influx of deposits” since fall 2022 (ongoing)

2) In the past, "Lehman shock", the "share price fall" in a short period of the factors that cause bankruptcy.

Credit Suisse is currently experiencing a sharp decline in its share price.

3) “Credit Suisse” was considered as an exclusion target in the WH information.

In fact, Credit Suisse's managerial instability was not caused by the "Silicon Valley bank failure", but actually started around the fall of 2022.

Above is a graph showing the status of a Credit Suisse deposit.

You can see that the bank's deposit balance is rapidly decreasing (deposit flow) "after the fall of 2022". Accelerated deposit outflows are a sign of accelerating financial instability at Credit Suisse.

Currently (as of March 17, 2023), the share price has fallen to the "$2 level".

Credit Suisse stock price trend in March 2023