Ukrainian soldier: ”Only 20 people left out of 475”
🧵More and more Ukrainian units are complaining about missing support and being thrown into battle to die.
-> This happened already last summer. So let’s try look back and see if we can predict the future!
1/
🧵More and more Ukrainian units are complaining about missing support and being thrown into battle to die.
-> This happened already last summer. So let’s try look back and see if we can predict the future!
1/
Last summer such videos were frequent and the Russian forces were also slowly advancing in the Donbass. The situation was awfully similar.
And also “pro Russian experts” predicted the collapse of the Ukrainian army … yet here we are a year later.
2/
And also “pro Russian experts” predicted the collapse of the Ukrainian army … yet here we are a year later.
2/
https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1638193732473307138
In reality Ukraine sent freshly mobilized and badly equipped troops to the front as a temporary measure. These poor guys were holding off the russian army, but slowly losing ground.
This was done to win time and assemble a western trained and equipped strike force.
3/
This was done to win time and assemble a western trained and equipped strike force.
3/
https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1633944670454652929
When the training in NATO countries was finished and the equipment was assembled back in Ukraine, the front movement stopped.
I remember reading reports, that it got tougher for Russian reconnaissance groups and in some areas they could only operate at night all of a sudden.
4/
I remember reading reports, that it got tougher for Russian reconnaissance groups and in some areas they could only operate at night all of a sudden.
4/
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1637131646481645568
In short, then the Kherson and Kharkiv offensive happened and that caught the Russian army off guard.
The mechanized units swooped in quickly and captured the Kharkiv region, Kupyansk, Liman and so on. Ukraine did take heavy losses, but that’s a price they’re willing to pay.
5/
The mechanized units swooped in quickly and captured the Kharkiv region, Kupyansk, Liman and so on. Ukraine did take heavy losses, but that’s a price they’re willing to pay.
5/
So is the same thing happening again?
-> Yes, in my opinion it is exactly what is happening. They even announce it, but most people don’t take that seriously and are blinded by the crushing battlefield situation. But I would be careful and expect a last desperate move.
6/
-> Yes, in my opinion it is exactly what is happening. They even announce it, but most people don’t take that seriously and are blinded by the crushing battlefield situation. But I would be careful and expect a last desperate move.
6/
Check how Germany prepared the last-chance Ardennes Offensive:
“Only guns that have been in the line for some time and whose positions were known were allowed to fire and even then on a reduced scale. This was to support the theory that the Germans were short of ammunition!”
7/
“Only guns that have been in the line for some time and whose positions were known were allowed to fire and even then on a reduced scale. This was to support the theory that the Germans were short of ammunition!”
7/
Looking at the Ardennes Offensive again we can see the similarities and a blitz towards Melitopol to reach the Sea of Azov is the most probable aim.
-> In war deceit is key, so they would pretend to do something else. This would also explain the obsession to hold Bakhmut.
8/
-> In war deceit is key, so they would pretend to do something else. This would also explain the obsession to hold Bakhmut.
8/
Why? The biggest reason is that Ukraine is on western life support. By now the west covers even pension payments. So if the west would pull out, Ukraine would lose the war and collapse as a state quickly.
-> And the public is tired, support is dwindling. A Big Bang is needed!
9/
-> And the public is tired, support is dwindling. A Big Bang is needed!
9/
But it was different. Last summer a critical factor came into place. Russian contract soldiers that were hired for this mission, started to go home, since their contracts ran out of the signed terms. So the front was thinly manned, especially the Kharkiv region was weak.
10/
10/
https://twitter.com/SenoreAmore/status/1638283158440366080
But this time:
1) Russia has mobilized 300.000 troops, which by now are trained and equipped.
2) The bulk of the fighting so far is done Wagner and DNR militia.
3) The mobilized troops are on stand by.
4) Fortification lines are built
-> Russia has enough resources now!
11/
1) Russia has mobilized 300.000 troops, which by now are trained and equipped.
2) The bulk of the fighting so far is done Wagner and DNR militia.
3) The mobilized troops are on stand by.
4) Fortification lines are built
-> Russia has enough resources now!
11/
So what do I expect?
- A big offensive to prove to the public that they’re winning
- Most western equipment to be used in that offensive
- The Russian would be able to fight it off
- This would break the combat capabilities of Ukraine’s army
= the last big battle of this war
12/
- A big offensive to prove to the public that they’re winning
- Most western equipment to be used in that offensive
- The Russian would be able to fight it off
- This would break the combat capabilities of Ukraine’s army
= the last big battle of this war
12/
Thoughts pls!
@imetatronink @RWApodcast @GonzaloLira1968 @GeromanAT @baronitaigas @witte_sergei @200_zoka @stillgray @squatsons @runews @DefensePolitics @The_Real_Fly @BrianJBerletic @MarkSleboda1 @LogKa11 @VonClownsewitz @Chadyrov11 @jacksonhinklle @thatdayin1992… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@imetatronink @RWApodcast @GonzaloLira1968 @GeromanAT @baronitaigas @witte_sergei @200_zoka @stillgray @squatsons @runews @DefensePolitics @The_Real_Fly @BrianJBerletic @MarkSleboda1 @LogKa11 @VonClownsewitz @Chadyrov11 @jacksonhinklle @thatdayin1992… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
awesome ... so I'm not totally off 😂
https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1638712178994999296?s=20
Smart guys agree with me, great ...
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1638698914835734529?s=20
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