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Kelley K Profile picture
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Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Three years ago when I started tracking Covid data in Georgia, I never imagined I'd end up co-authoring a paper on basic mathematical errors the CDC made during the pandemic. Most of the errors exaggerate the risk to children. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
This paper identifies 25 errors the CDC made - all factual numerical errors. The CDC's use of the Data Tracker demographics page to consistently overstate pediatric deaths was the source of several errors. kelleyk.substack.com/p/the-cdcs-fla…
Other errors related to their reliance on the flawed pre-print and their related claim that Covid was a top 5 cause of death for children of all ages. They cited that statistic even after the pre-print authors admitted the errors. kelleyk.substack.com/p/fact-check-c…
The CDC also doesn't have needed checks in place to identify when inaccurate hospitalization data is reported. This caused pediatric hospitalizations to be overreported significantly on multiple occasions, sometimes causing panic at the national level:
For months, the CDC reported that an estimated 4% of Covid deaths were among children, when the actual percentage based on their initial estimates was 0.04%. archive.ph/zaBEq Image
I could go on, but the full list of errors is in the paper. While this is not an exhaustive list, it is concerning that the organization tasked with analyzing Covid data and setting policy recommendations has made such simple errors throughout the pandemic.
Download the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image

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More from @KelleyKga

Kelley K Profile picture
Mar 15
In the wake of debate about the Cochrane review and a new New York Times op-ed from Zeynep Tufecki claiming "the science is clear that masks work," many are just learning about her outsized influence on mask recommendations early in the pandemic. kelleyk.substack.com/p/where-us-mas…
A major part of Zeynep's advocacy was not just that cloth masks were an effective mitigation strategy, but she also vehemently disputed any discussion of potential mask harms. kelleyk.substack.com/p/where-us-mas…
Once community masking for *everyone* was deemed effective, necessary (due to asymptomatic spread), and harmless, it's not surprising that the CDC implemented a misguided and nuance-free recommendation - which quickly became a requirement in many places. kelleyk.substack.com/p/where-us-mas…
Read 4 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Feb 26
I know that @CDCgov lies a lot about pediatric Covid risks (esp in ACIP meetings), but when they state so clearly "6 months - 17 years," I expect them to actually subtract the 305 deaths *under 6 months* from total pediatric deaths. This slide should say 1184, not 1489.
CDC should also label the slide as "Covid-associated Deaths" -- deaths where Covid is anywhere on the death certificate. UCoD by age comes from CDC WONDER, so the time period and <1 age brackets are a bit different, but ~30% of pediatric Covid deaths are NOT underlying CoD.
Yet another example of why I argue CDC acts more as a sales/marketing agency than a health agency. kelleyk.substack.com/p/cdc-is-a-vac…
Read 4 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Feb 9
Walensky repeated the lie that Covid has lead to 2000 pediatric deaths in the US?!? That's from their flawed Data Tracker demographics page, and is NOT accurate. @CDCDirector needs to be held accountable for providing this false information. @DanCrenshawTX kelleyk.substack.com/p/the-cdcs-fla…
@CDCDirector @DanCrenshawTX Also, at the ACIP meeting when they discussed the Vaccines for Children program, the CDC explicitly stated that the vote on the VFC program was completely separate and distinct from the schedule. So she's admitting they lied to the ACIP advisors and to the American public then?
@CDCDirector @DanCrenshawTX Here were comments from @nirav_mainecdc (who is now being promoted to 2nd in command at CDC) from the Oct. ACIP meeting about the vote to add Covid vaccines to the schedule:
Read 4 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Jan 30
Three more months to “begin the process of a smooth operational wind-down of the flexibilities enabled by the COVID-19 emergency declarations.” 🙄
And I'm wondering if this will include lifting the ban on unvaccinated travelers to the US?!?
Here's some good information about what each of the various declarations do. It sounds like the two I highlighted are what Biden will be ending. The link has additional tables with a lot more specifics about which declarations affect which things. kff.org/coronavirus-co…
The White House made it clear that the two emergencies that they're continuing until May "do not impose mask mandates or vaccine mandates." Don't get your hopes up that the government's remaining vax and mask requirements are in any way tied to these emergency declarations.
Read 4 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Jan 29
1/ Many issues with this study that have been addressed by a lot of others, but I looked into their claim that their finding of 36% is in line with estimates of 10-80% from other studies. The meta-analysis they referenced that found 80% had Long Covid is seriously flawed.
2/ The cited study included a meta-analysis of 7 studies identifying prevalence of Long Covid. The highest one used **the wrong number** from that study. 94% had symptoms when they tested positive. 35% had symptoms 2-3 weeks later. Very different. Image
3/ Another study had a control group, but the meta-analysis used the % with symptoms in the infected group (ignoring the 35% with symptoms in the control group)! Three other studies included hospitalized patients from early 2020. Image
Read 5 tweets
Kelley K Profile picture
Jan 18
Disappointed to see @nirav_mainecdc appointed to a leadership role at CDC. His Twitter bio says he "may call out Tweets that are not factual" but when I repeatedly called out his tweets saying Covid was a top 5 cause of death for children, I was ignored.
Dr. Shah is also a voting member of the ACIP, and was a member last fall when the committee voted unanimously to put the Covid vaccine *and bivalent booster* on the pediatric immunization schedule.
For more on that decision: kelleyk.substack.com/p/acip-immuniz…
Here's an article with more info about the leadership changes announced at CDC: medpagetoday.com/special-report…
Read 4 tweets

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