Thread by @TheGreeneBJ

Everyone should take time to read this article from the Journal of Military and Strategic Studies on the "Immediate Origins of Putin's Preventative War on Ukraine"

It's a careful review of Putin's public statements in the runup to his decision to invade.

jmss.org/article/view/7…

It really goes into detail about Russian proposals to solve the Ukrainian crisis by peaceful means, and the US response of endless escalation.

Western media usually date the crisis with the Russian military buildup in Fall/Winter of 2021, but they completely ignore the extreme levels of provocation earlier in the year.

32-country NATO exercises off Russia's coast, along with written NATO partnerships with Ukraine.

You may see things like the "NATO Expansion Myth" but this has been an expressed concern about Putin for the entire year leading up to the invasion.

May 2021:
"It appears... Ukraine is being turned, slowly
but steadily, into an antipode of Russia"

June 2021

"We cannot but be concerned over the continuous build-up of NATO’s military potential and infrastructure in the vicinity of Russian borders, as well the fact that the Alliance is refusing to consider in a constructive manner our proposals on de-escalating tension"

In July 2021, Putin published his long essay, widely cited in the Western press as evidence of Hitlerian ambitions. Of course audiences and probably journalists never actually read it.

The historical background he he cited was far from a call to re establish the USSR:

The " true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible
only in partnership with Russia" was widely reported out of context in the West and used to call Putin a "madman"

But the surrounding text was usually omitted and ignored:

Putin stressed his commitment to the Minsk Accords to settle the situation with the breakaway Donbas republics, stating "I am convinced that they still have no alternative" than the peaceful Minsk settlements. .
Of course that wasn't reported in the western press much if at all.

Putin met with Angela Merkel in August and there too, he was concerned about the fact that Ukraine was avoiding a peaceful settlement, and being two-faced in negotiations:

"We have no other tool to achieve peace"

This is when Putin began his diplomatic offensive, stressing "we need precisely legal, juridical guarantees, because our Western colleagues have failed to deliver on verbal commitments."

After talks with Biden, Putin still stressed his NATO worries.

"We are bound to be concerned over the prospect of Ukraine’s potential accession to NATO because this will be followed by the deployment of corresponding troop contingents, bases and weapons..."

On December 17, Putin submitted serious proposals on security guarantees to both NATO and the US about their expansionism.

Later he reiterated fears of what I call, the Ukrainian missile crisis. Ukraine in NATO inherently means US missiles pointed at Russia.

The US actually seemed to start to talk about weapons placement, and Putin was pretty pleased at that. (I reported on this back in January '22)

But the US refused to guarantee that Ukraine wouldn't join NATO, which was Russia's core concerns.

(As an aside, it was reported that the US was offering verbal agreements that Ukraine wouldn't join NATO. Hilarious on so many levels)

news.antiwar.com/2022/02/17/in-…

You can see Putin growing desperate at the obvious US aggressive designs:

"Suppose Ukraine is a NATO member. It will be filled with...modern offensive weapons will be deployed on its territory just...who is going to prevent this?"

This quote from Putin is pretty telling:

"Imagine that Ukraine is a NATO country and starts these military operations. What are we supposed to do? Fight against the NATO bloc? Has anyone given at least some thought to this? Apparently not"

"We need to find a way to ensure the interests and security of all parties to this process: Ukraine, the other European countries and Russia. But this can only be done if the documents we proposed undergo a serious, thoughtful analysis"

Over the next weeks, Putin is still reiterating the dangers of NATO expansion as a core concern.

Putin continued to talk about the failure of negotiations

As late as February 15, Putin was publicly saying that a peace settlement along the lines of the Minsk accords was still possible.

On February 17, Putin responded to US counterproposals and said that if they couldn't come to an agreement, Russia would resort to "military-technical means"

The nail in the coffin seems to be Zelenskyy's insane and irresponsible speech at Munich, in which he waved around the idea of Ukraine getting nukes.

Are these the words of someone seriously looking to avoid a war?

Add to that, the Ukrainians side began launching a massive attack on the Donbas republics, an overt provocation.

Anyone who says that NATO expansion is not a primary cause for the war is a dumb fuck or a liar.