Thread by @me_ganesh14

Saw Karnataka TV #KarnatakaElection2023 survey for some critical seat & Coastal districts. He seems to have done seat to seat analysis for all 224 seat and seems to have done decent survey. His number as follows
BJP - 107
Cong - 75
JDS - 36
Other - 6
1/n

Overall seems to have done a decent survey but I find him a bit Pro JDS way he talks also in some seat he has predicted win just because there is possibility of internal rebellion in BJP or Cong(Eg:- Sringeri, Moodigere). Following are my view based on how much i saw. 2/n

Positive
1) Has done seat to seat survey with backing of demographics data
2) Has considered the past voting pattern
3) Caste dynamic captured to max extent
4) Wherever candidate not declared has taken possible face
5) Has taken possible rebellion factors
3/n

Negative
1) Over dependence of rebellion factor (Eg:- Moodigere)
2) Sole criteria of taking Candidate caste(Eg:- Yeshwantpur & Sringeri)
3) Modi factor totally not considered especially in Coastal, Bengaluru & Malenadu
4) Over estimation of JDS, AAP & underestimation of SDPI. 4/n

Some factor which is beyond his control so only assumption possible
1) BJP 224 Candidate & Cong 100 Candidate & Possible rebellions
2) Narrative change after Reservation gamble by BJP govt & Modi Goodwill
3) Money factor as poll closes in
4) Polarization(Caste & religion)
5/n

My take on seat i analyzed is overall number looks close to situation in Coast but seat based variation is there like they gave Bhatkal to Cong & Kumta to BJP but ground looks Bhatkal tilt BJP, Kumta tilt Cong, Puttur & Kapu final factor will be BJP ticket. 6/n