Ganesh Profile picture
Mar 27 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Saw Karnataka TV #KarnatakaElection2023 survey for some critical seat & Coastal districts. He seems to have done seat to seat analysis for all 224 seat and seems to have done decent survey. His number as follows
BJP - 107
Cong - 75
JDS - 36
Other - 6
1/n
Overall seems to have done a decent survey but I find him a bit Pro JDS way he talks also in some seat he has predicted win just because there is possibility of internal rebellion in BJP or Cong(Eg:- Sringeri, Moodigere). Following are my view based on how much i saw. 2/n
Positive
1) Has done seat to seat survey with backing of demographics data
2) Has considered the past voting pattern
3) Caste dynamic captured to max extent
4) Wherever candidate not declared has taken possible face
5) Has taken possible rebellion factors
3/n
Negative
1) Over dependence of rebellion factor (Eg:- Moodigere)
2) Sole criteria of taking Candidate caste(Eg:- Yeshwantpur & Sringeri)
3) Modi factor totally not considered especially in Coastal, Bengaluru & Malenadu
4) Over estimation of JDS, AAP & underestimation of SDPI. 4/n
Some factor which is beyond his control so only assumption possible
1) BJP 224 Candidate & Cong 100 Candidate & Possible rebellions
2) Narrative change after Reservation gamble by BJP govt & Modi Goodwill
3) Money factor as poll closes in
4) Polarization(Caste & religion)
5/n
My take on seat i analyzed is overall number looks close to situation in Coast but seat based variation is there like they gave Bhatkal to Cong & Kumta to BJP but ground looks Bhatkal tilt BJP, Kumta tilt Cong, Puttur & Kapu final factor will be BJP ticket. 6/n

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More from @me_ganesh14

Mar 27
BJP in 2018 made some good investment in few youth leaders like Preetham Gowda, Harish Poonja, Arun Kumar(By Poll), Poornima etc they have become very formidable in their seat. Many were gaint slayers in their seat. They are now in process of becoming long term prospects. 1/n
They are all currently ahead by convincing margin in respective seats. There are also few more previous investment like Sunil Kumar, Ashwath Narayan, Revoor, Bellad, Limbavali etc who have become gaints leaders of respective areas. Tejasvi, Muniswami were groomed in LS. 2/n
If all goes on expected line then we may see some youth leaders like Anil Shetty, Gautham Gowda, Cement Manju, Ashok Jairam this time . Gautham & Anil may not win in initial attempt but if they hold ground for 5 years they will become gaint slayer and can become big name. 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Mar 26
BJP reservation move has hit parties hard in taking stand. They can't oppose increasing reservation to Vokkaliga & Lingayat, sub categorisation of SC as non Right Dalit were asking. So do support it as their vote bank is effected community in this move. #KarnatakaElection2023 1/n
BJP has nothing to lose by taking ire of Right Dalit & Muslim as they vote in insignificant number to party but has lot to gain from other Dalit & OBC community. BJP should ensure full poll revolve around reservation issue. UC have been taken care with EWS too. So ideal game. 2/n
Congress tried to split BJP vote bank using reservation issue by splitting Lingayat into sub castes whereas now BJP has turned table by hitting right into Cong vote bank by hitting them hard by sub categorisation of SC & removing Muslim reservation. #KarnatakaElection2023 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3, 2022
Reason why Dhumeels fear @annamalai_k unlike past @BJP4TamilNadu president is for 3 reason
1) Whenever BJP used to rise a valid issue DMK trolls used discredit issue by calling BJP leader as Parappan(Brahmin) but Annamalai is not Brahmin but OBC so Anti Brahmin card fails.
1/n.
2) When @DrTamilisaiGuv & @Murugan_MoS were @BJP4TamilNadu president Dhumeels tried to Trivialize them with cheap memes via SM Troll brigade. Tried to paint them illiterate. Point to note Tamilisai MBBS degree holder & L Murugan is PHD holder. 2/n
Both have educational qualifications way above @mkstalin & his son @Udhaystalin who a just some small "Graduate". Whereas it's well know that @annamalai_k is ex IPS officer who know in and out about law & police so none of cheap memes troll brigade of DMK fails here too. 3/n.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 4, 2020
My Uncle was part of 1989 Kar Seva. I spoke to him asking his experience. His experience was both emotional & terrific. So thought to share some of his experience. He and fellow Kar Sevaks left from Sanghaniketan Hall(Mangalore) to Ayodhya in Train. #ProfileForRam
1/n
While leaving for Ayodhya they were asked to take bare minimum clothes & a plate & spoon. This coz they had to do long walk to prevent from being arrested. Coz UP police would have arrested persons in border to Ayodhya. #ProfileForRam #RamBhumiPujan
2/n
They left from Mangalore and once reaching MP - UP border they deboarded train, then their journey was in Trucks & by legs. They had to even cross fully flowing river. It was pure devotion of Lord Ram that made them to take complete such difficult path easily. #ProfileForRam
3/n
Read 13 tweets

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