Thread by @PeccaviConsults

1) The fight for Nigeria’s top office has taken an interesting turn. The inclusion of @officialABAT drug charges in @PeterObi election petition is as much high level trolling as it is a legitimate prayer.

2) It is highly unlikely a foreign conviction from the early 90s will exclude someone from contesting but as part of the petition it will have to be litigated & the tribunal & most likely Supreme Court will have to litigate on whether someone with a drug case can be President.

3) From an Influence Op point of view it's a clever tactic. Irrespective of the outcome this issue will be part of Nigeria’s legal precedents, it will be fodder for foreign/ local media, comedians, late night talk shows (#NarcosNigeria jokes will abound)

4) It raises the reputational cost of doing business for Nigeria’s currently unlooking Western partners. The US will clearly be uncomfortable being drawn into this, any attempt to withhold information (deliberately or not) will be seized upon as evidence of US/ western hypocrisy.

5) The other effect is on APC itself. While the crux of the petition is rigging, this topic will end up generating the most noise taking up time & effort & discomfiting them.

6) This discomfiture shows with the responses which actually seem to amplify the accusations quoting the #Tinubuisadrugbaron, #TinubuIsADrugDealer, #Tinubuisadrugbaron rather than suppressing them!

7) APC of course could take control of the narrative, Tinubu to come out with an exclusive interview acknowledging the drug case & forfeitures but painting it as a youthful mistake & being misled by bad friends. He could then present his story as one of redemption

8) In which he turned his life around by becoming a mentor (not godfather), businessman & champion of democracy (if APC uses this storyline I expect a fee sha).
Either way the #ObidientMovement continues in its mission of shaking tables irrespective of whose sitting at them