Thread by @SiOldridge

In a parallel universe, today's revised Net Zero Strategy would correct for the many flaws identified in our #AmbitionGap report, reviewed and endorsed by leading climate and nature scientists... 🧵

1/ UK targets are too weak for 1.5°C. Carbon budgets to 2032 were set up to 12 years ago. They ignore international ✈️&🚢, making unrealistic assumptions that all nations will cut emissions as fast as us, ignoring pop growth and rising living standards in developing nations.

2/ The Net Zero Strategy (NZS) was devised to achieve a just a 50% chance of success.
A safe future for humanity on the toss of a coin.

3/ 40% of our carbon footprint is ignored with no targets whatever to reduce imported emissions. Once we add imports, ✈️&🚢, emissions cuts since 1990 are less than 1% per year because UK has offshored so much manufacturing.

4/ UK continues to develop new fossil fuels despite warnings from the UN, the IEA and the CCC that this is not consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5°C.

5/ Gov still aims for 300,000 homes to be built a year, each causing 50 tonnes of emissions, whilst doing almost nothing to retrofit insulation and heat pumps in existing homes.
That alone will blow our carbon budget.
osf.io/5kxce/

6/ Demand-reduction measures on transport are too weak. Roads and airports are even set to expand, and there is no action to curb soaring SUV sales. There's little action on the mass shift needed to public transport and active travel.

https://twitter.com/baancc/status/1639584586115035136

7/ BECCS at Drax absolutely cannot deliver promised its CO2 removals and has devastating impacts on nature.
Direct Air Carbon Capture (DACCS) cannot be carbon negative until there is spare renewable power,
well outside the critical time frame for 1.5°C.

8/ Methane levels are rising alarmingly fast. It's 83 times more potent than CO2 over 20 years. The CCC says we must cut meat consumption by 20% by 2030 or miss targets. But Gov is doing nothing, afraid to even inform the public about this. Why not treat people like grown ups?

9/ The NZS relies on blue hydrogen, made from methane, worse than coal for climate.
newscientist.com/article/224134…
And on biofuels for aviation - which threaten food security and ignore contrails, half the warming impact.
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

10/ The taxpayer continues to fund fossil fuels
with £10bn in tax breaks every year.

11/ That 👆is all just failure to address emissions, but it is only half the story. We cannot get to grips with climate change without protecting and restoring nature, looking after our critical natural stores of carbon.

12/ The NZS totally fails to address the food system, accounting for 35% of our emissions (including imports). The food system drives agricultural damage - not farmers. Only transformative action gives us a hope of 1.5°C.
wrap.org.uk/media-centre/p…

13/ Agrochemicals and livestock waste are poisoning our land, polluting rivers and leaching into drinking water systems. Almost 50% of UK methane, 70% of
nitrous oxide and 87% of ammonia pollution comes from agriculture. Yet...
gov.uk/government/sta…

14/ New EIP river targets have no targets at all for pesticides, antibiotics or animal waste, despite agricultural pollution being the main cause of rivers failing on ecological status. Pesticides are everywhere. pan-uk.org/half-of-bread-…

15/ And water companies are being given until 2050 for the majority of sewage outflows to comply with targets. Even beyond that, they can still dump raw sewage if they demonstrate there's no adverse impact. There won't if everything is dead by then...!
zerohour.uk/river-pollutio…

16/ Peatland stores 8 times as much carbon as tropical rainforest. UK's degraded peatlands account for nearly 4% of UK greenhouse gas emissions. Yet the NZS only aims to restore 20% with ELMS - a voluntary scheme - despite huge benefits of going further.
ons.gov.uk/economy/enviro…

17/ Plans for a 2% increase in woodland by 2050 are pitiful, even less ambitious than the previous 30,000 hectare target. @friends_earth and @RewildingB estimate that we could realistically double woodland in a decade.
s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets.rewildi…

18/ The NZS completely ignores that the ocean can store more carbon than any other ecosystem. Blue carbon is not included in our emissions reporting. Gov continues to allow destructive bottom trawling- even in MPAs-despite causing more CO2 than aviation.
campaignfornature.org/protecting-the…

19/ The NZS ignores the UK's global ecological footprint. For food alone, we use almost as much land overseas as our own land area. nationalfoodstrategy.org
We must take responsibility for impacts beyond our own borders.

20/ The UK needs a clear overarching legally-binding strategy to deliver nature restoration and ensure we stick to our share of the global carbon budget, whilst taking responsibility for our global footprint.

Please support the #CEBill @cebill_now zerohour.uk/bill/

21/ The #CEBill is supported by these scientists (and more), 160+ MPs and Peers, hundreds of councils, businesses and NGOs.
Scientists can sign up here: zerohour.uk/scientist-supp……
🙏🙏