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Callie Cox

@callieabost

Apr 3

The S&P 500 has risen a year after the last Fed hike in 6 out of the last 9 hiking cycles

What's the common trend when stocks fall after a hiking cycle? ⬇

An economic recession or a market crisis.

Let's start with May 1981.

The Fed stopped hiking, but then immediately had to cut less than a month later because the economy crumbled under the pressure of high rates.

It was the Volcker era of high inflation.

It's also worth mentioning that the S&P 500 was about 5% from a high when the Fed finished hiking.

A recession wasn't rly on people's radars.

Read 9 tweets

Callie Cox

@callieabost

Feb 22

In this environment, there are two types of bears (in my mind):

😬 Cautious bears (prices look high, but low in stocks may be in)

😱 Doomsday bears (prices look high AND stocks could make new lows)

I'd consider us in the 😬cautious bears😬 camp.

Hopeful the Fed can pull this off without a recession (and so far they are!), but skeptical of the type of rally we've seen YTD.

If you're a 😱doomsday bear😱, you think the Fed *can't* pull this off and that we'll potentially see new lows as the economy tips into recession.

And that's a fair thought: earnings have declined an average of 20% in recessions.

The market isn't braced for this.

Read 11 tweets

Callie Cox

@callieabost

Jan 19

Love waking up to a thread on why SSRIs are just a big pharma scam.

I've been on meds for 6 years now and trust me, no amount of sunshine, money or sleep could've helped me

and TBH I can't tell you how much it sucks to hear ppl say it's a lifestyle thing. the stigma is horrible

So I'll balance it out.

I've had clinical anxiety/depression for most of my life, and it got so bad in adulthood that I had to seek treatment

Mine is a mix of genetics, hormones and awful childhood trauma.

And when I got on meds, I had panic attacks every day. On the floor, couldn't breathe kind of attacks.

Read 7 tweets

Callie Cox

@callieabost

Jan 18

😬DECEMBER RETAIL SALES😬

😬First back-to-back monthly declines of 1% or more since the pandemic began (and before that, 2008 and 2001)

😓Declines in sales for most items

⛽ BUT food, gas, autos and other items are making these numbers seem scarier than they actually are

Yes, retail sales *in general* seem ominous.

Check this chart out, though:

It's the monthly change in the retail sales control group, the less volatile basket of core retail sales that feeds directly into GDP calculations

Not great, but not so ominous

two notes on that chart:

1️⃣ control group sales are adjusted for inflation
2️⃣ I cut off the 2020 MOM changes, they were super drastic and they distorted the chart

Read 4 tweets

Callie Cox

@callieabost

Jan 17

Oh wow

Last week was the fifth-biggest week of options volume in history, according to Bloomberg data

227 million contracts traded, NBD 👀

There wasn't a huge surge in volume on any single day (even though Thursday — CPI day — was the highest volume of the week)

Rather, Wednesday-Friday options volume was consistently high, clocking at around ~45-50m contracts per day

No big discrepancies in number of puts/calls traded either

Just good ole fashioned trading

Read 4 tweets

Callie Cox

@callieabost

Dec 22, 2022

The equity put-call ratio of spiked to a record high yesterday

...and there's a rly interesting reason why ⬇

First of all, the equity put-call ratio is the ratio of call volume on single stocks and ETFs/put volume on single stocks and ETFs

It doesn't measure buying and selling, but *trading*

This is important.

It shows emotion, not direction.

Read 16 tweets

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