Thread by @SSjessing

1. Quarter is done, and so is 1. April, so time for some facts.

With

2306 MW offshore wind
4710 MW onshore wind
2230 MW solar

🇩🇰 wind & solar generated 6.1 TWh in Q1-2023.

With 9.2 TWh load, that is 67% wind+solar penetration, leaving 3.5 TWh residual load (purple area).

The 3.5 TWh residual load was covered by:

Import 0.9 TWh
Waste 0.2 TWh
Biomass 1.1 TWh
Fossil gas 0.6 TWh
Coal 0.8 TWh

By 2031, following capacities is projected to installed acc. to @Energistyr AF22:

13251 MW offshore wind
7415MW onshore wind
18640 MW solar

Incl. 9 GW offshore wind to be tendered in 2023.

If this was installed in Q1-2023 🇩🇰 wind & solar would have generated 22.4 TWh.

With 50% road vehicles electrified, the load would be 9.8 TWh.

That makes 228% wind+solar penetration, leaving only 0.9 TWh residual load + 13.3 TWh W&S for non-conventional load (PtX, heating etc)

The 0.9 TWh imported from scandinavian hydro, which we can easily return in windy periods, is enough to cover residual load - alone.

Combined with 0.2 TWh waste, the 1.8 TWh primary biogas generated in Q1-2023, is about enough to cover 0.9 TWh residual load - alone.

3.6 TWh primary biogas pr quarter as projected by 2030 is more than enough - by far.

A combination of above means we'll be both independent on imports and have plenty green M4 available for non-electricity purposes.

We don't really need batteries, Hydrogen, other electric storages - though they are expected to be available to some extend too.

13.3 TWh potential surplus of wind+solar is enough to generate 50 TWh heat through heat pumps, which is about twice the amount of district+individual heating consumed in Q1-2021, and there'll be enough to produce our fair share of efuels and biofuels without overconsuming biomass

In other words; we are much closer to #100RE than most people think.

The only reason we wont yet be #100RE in 2031, is that fossil vehicles etc. bought in resent years will still be around through 2030s