Thread by @DanCassino

I clicked through before realizing this was me.

https://twitter.com/PIX11News/status/1642540136947761152

My argument is that by focusing attention on Trump, especially in conservative media, the indictment generally helps him in the primary. So long as we’re talking about Trump, other contenders aren’t getting any air time.

Trump’s superpower is dominating media coverage and drawing all the air out of the room for everyone else. That’s useful in a primary- but doesn’t do much to help in the general.

It’s hard to imagine there are many folks who weren’t going to vote Republican in 2024 that are persuaded to do so by an indictment. It also pushes the narrative of the election from a referendum on Biden to a referendum on Trump.

Trump’s style is claiming victimhood: but that’s not what his appeal is about. His appeal comes from talking about discontent- over globalization, manufacturing losses, changing social mores- that weren’t being addressed by mainstream candidates.

To the extent he’s talking about himself, rather than the issues that appealed to swing voters, he’s losing. To the extent that voters are taking about the GOP candidate, rather than Biden, Biden is winning.

Also- and this is being overlooked- it’s really early. We have another year of primary jockeying. Lots can change. Scandals. News events. People dropping dead. Anyone who tells you that they know what’s going to happen in 2024 is lying or deluded.