Kelvin. Profile picture
Apr 3 5 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
One part of the debt stock that constitutes 2.37% of total domestic debts (that is 73% of total debts) is what is called promissory notes.

Currently, the FG has issued notes worth #530bn in EEG (2.37% of the total domestic debt stock as certificates that can be redeemed through
purchase of government securities, used as tax deductions) under the Export Incentives & Miscellanous Act of 2003. As the 10th Senate, Ministry of Finance, Budget Office look for revenues in 2023 and block leakages to the current fiscal position, I will recommend they do the
following:

• Require that companies that apply for EEG under local content policy, have at least a 60% Nigerian shareholding

• Require that companies process raw materials they export to a minimum level of enterprise or consumer manufacturing grade

• Prohibit third party
selling of EEG certificates between companies that get awarded and companies that purchase it for cash at a significant discount

• Make it criminal for government officials to facilitate EEG certificates in exchange for rebates from companies that are awarded
• Review tax laws with FIRS around the use of transfer pricing to repatriate funds from Nigeria.

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More from @realkelvin07

Apr 6
The government is struggling to cover the 11.5trillion in deficits for the 2023 budget,

Yet it's collecting $800m from the World Bank to fund palliative for removal of subsidy through conditional cash transfer to
10m households. The 2 most important items that determines growth in any budget are:

• Education
• Healthcare

In the 2023 appropriation act,

Education:

• allocation- 4.98%
• capex to allocation- 28%
• Personnel to allocation- 66%
• Overhead for ministry- 6%
Health:

• allocation to budget- 4.98%
• capex to allocation- 20.6%
• Personnel to allocation- 57%
• Overhead for ministry- 22.4%

These numbers explain to you why ASUU will go on strike for 8months,

Or why there is one (1) doctor per 10k Nigerians as compared to the
Read 5 tweets
Apr 2
The series 8 talgo trains Lagos State acquired last January for the red line in Wisconsin was fairly used train, Governor Scott Walker acquired in 2009 from a Spanish manufacturer for $47m (and they did not end up using because of a lawsuit with Contractor)

The Steel used for
constructing the rail tracks is called carbon steel with a diameter of 1084; it cost $1,630 per metric tonne & you need 782 tonnes to construct 1km of rail track, multiplied by 37 km,

The rolling stock, elevated tracks (piling for elevation), stations, fare collection equipment
Should not bring the total cost to more than $150m for engineering, procurement and construction.

In 2009, the Asian Development Bank awarded a 75km single track project at $2.2m per km for a total cost of $170m.

In 2009, Libya awarded a project for standard gauge to Chinese
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1
The people saying he's jumping the gun clearly do not understand how frustrating it is for a newly sworn in Governor to have creditors place "Irrevocable Standing Payment Order" on the FAAC account of the state to debit interest on principal from source, & having his eselensi
renegotiate to refinance existing loans.

The transition bill recently signed as part of the constitutional amendment missed a clear opportunity to codify this as legislation:

• A sitting Governor that has finished 8 years or loses re-election, cannot collect fresh loans
during transition period (unless it is a rolling plan to finance budget deficits, after undergoing proper scrutiny by State House of Assembly)

7 years ago, one outgoing Governor requested for $90m from the World Bank to fund a water project, just months before leaving office.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 30
That is because the Senate has not passed 23.7 trillion in ways & means overdraft that is currently floating at 19% per annum (18% MPR + 1%), plus another 7.5 trillion naira scheduled as recurrent debt expenditure for 2023 budget

46.25+23.7+7.5=77.45 (trillion naira)
OBJ left the total debt stock (Internal and External in 2007) at 2.3 trillion naira,

GEJ left the total debt stock (Internal & External in 2015) at 12.6 trillion,

This govt has raised it up to 77.45 trillion in 8 Years,

The sinking fund (or debt servicing+refinancing) is
currently 29%, by the end of this budget cycle when W&M is securitized into a 40-Year government bond at 9% & 7.5 trillion is raised in recurrent debt expenditure, the sinking fund (debt servicing & refinance) will rise to 43.8% of budget

So even though you remove under-recovery
Read 5 tweets
Mar 17
I keep thinking:

Only 38% of 12.6m customers currently have prepaid meters.

The government says in the 2nd half of 2022, the DISCOs had a revenue impairment of 49% to NBET as they remitted only #265bn of #519bn for load delivered from GENCOs through TCN
This means their efficiency rate is 51% because of the loss from estimated billing. And the govt has to cover for the shortfall of #254bn for only 2 quarters.

I get the argument of adopting cost reflective tariff, but this issue of raising electricity tariff because collection
is so poor is like the argument for raising VAT because the revenue to GDP ratio is low.

Of all the problems bedevilling the power sector (from infrastructure for distributing gas to GENCOs, to the FX issues they face for parts & maintenance, to lack of CAPEX to expand capacity
Read 5 tweets
Mar 17
“Nigeria is one of the few countries in the world where banks have to keep a specified percentage of monies raised with the CBN. Banks also have to keep a certain level of liquidity and maintain a capital adequacy ratio. In our laws, after tax, 23% of your profits must be kept in
a statutory reserve fund to boost your capital adequacy ratio.

After the 2008 financial crises, banks in Nigeria came together to form AMCON to which banks in Nigeria contribute as Insurance against crises”- Godwin Emefiele at Africa Central Bankers' Conference in Jo'burg.
Interesting that the response of the CBN Governor to a framework for managing a bank run and insolvency is to mention AMCON that has loan impairment of #5trn on their balance sheet.

Important to note that the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) and the Orderly Liquidation Authority
Read 5 tweets

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