Comparing the Chinese CDC paper and Worobey/Proximal Origin et al. papers in Science that used the same data, the former makes few assertions while the latter went on @nytimes breaking news with claims of "dispositive" and "incontrovertible" evidence for a market #OriginOfCovid
@nytimes My question is, will there now be a comparable media frenzy reporting on the Chinese CDC's analysis that the available evidence doesn't tell us how the virus got into the market?
@nytimes If you think that the data they provided is too poor to draw strong conclusions from, then why would it be acceptable for other scientists to tour major media outlets saying that the data point to an infected raccoon dog?
The raccoon dog reporting is bloated.
We knew in 2020 that the virus, people & animals were in the same location in December 2019.
The question is whether the virus was brought to the market by animals or people. That is where key evidence easily found for SARS and MERS is missing for Covid. thebulletin.org/2022/03/the-or…
If there had not been an early cluster of cases at the market, I doubt there would be any argument now about whether the virus arrived in Wuhan via the wildlife trade or research activities.
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@SherylNYT the genetic evidence of close relatives to the pandemic virus found in nature does not discern between the market and the lab, because both were drawing viruses from the same areas in South China and SE Asia and bringing these up into Wuhan.
Based on the scientific literature, it's clear that the Wuhan scientists were collecting viruses in Laos before the pandemic, with and without their EcoHealth partners.
If we're going to spend an inordinate amount of time talking about raccoon dogs, I believe an equal amount of time and energy should be devoted to tracking down all info outside of China related to the 2018 Wuhan-US defuse proposal.
In this proposal that scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology & US collaborators sent to DARPA in early 2018, they said they were looking for rare furin cleavage sites to put in live SARS-like viruses in the lab. They were synthesizing entire genomes & producing viruses.
They said they would test these genetically modified "low-risk" SARS-like viruses, i.e., not SARS1-like viruses, to see how the cleavage site insertions affected the virus' ability to grow in human airway cells.
Of 1380 samples collected from the Huanan market by the Chinese CDC investigators, ~220 were from the raccoon dog stall and its associated warehouse space.
This data supports the CCDC's statement that "samples analyzed in the current study were somehow biased, and wildlife-related vendors and early case-related vendors were prioritized for sample collection"
Notably, the CCDC paper mentioned that "among the 60 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive samples for RNA-seq analysis, 39 samples tested negative by NGS (no SARS-CoV-2 reads at all) (65.0%)".
However, their data do not tell us which samples were false positives.
It is well established that bats were kept at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and that Dr Shi Zhengli's lab worked with live bats. This was covered in @zeynep@nytimes piece in 2021.
@zeynep@nytimes From an archived interview:
"The research team caught a few bats from the wild to be used as experimental animals.. During the Spring Festival this year, the students all went home on vacation, and Teacher Shi silently undertook the task of raising bats." archive.is/DmL4g
The surprising thing to me is that this work with live bats had already been ongoing in 2009. A whole decade before Covid-19.
In 2018, the Wuhan Institute of Virology also said that they were generating primary or immortalized cells from bats for use in their lab experiments. nature.com/articles/s4158…
One thing that any respectable #OriginOfCovid investigation or commission must do is to build a consensus on the known and suspected earliest cases in China and overseas. We cannot move forward until we have this clarified.
This requires a systematic analysis of the news coverage and scientific articles describing early cases in China and elsewhere, as well as interviews of foreign doctors and others who were visiting Wuhan in late 2019.
It's impossible to reach a high confidence assessment on #OriginOfCovid with a window as wide as the first human infection happening any time between September and mid-November 2019.