Thread by @Gingfacekillah

If you only ever look for edges within the parameter space others have defined as reasonable, you'll never find the really good ideas. Question what others have defined as impossible or unviable.

More fucking around and finding out. Less parroting established "known knowns".

https://twitter.com/Gingfacekillah/status/1617914499151069187

Try this, just once:

1. Think of 2-5 stylized facts in your trading market/sport market etc. that everyone accepts as "roughly true".

2. Start from scratch and prove to yourself with data why these things are roughly true - understand why that consensus exists.

...continued 👇

3. Now take inventory of all the necessary assumptions that are required for the particular consensus stylized fact to remain buoyant. These are your potential attack vectors.

4. Start testing them out, looking for places or times that the assumptions might fail.

🫡🤫

There's a guy on twitter (can't remember the handle) with a brilliant tagline: "all models are wrong but you're not even trying"

So to point that back at this thread I'll end with:

Edges are tough to find, but how hard are you really trying?

Have a great Easter weekend.

"...but Andrew, what if I try and it doesn't work?"

That's going to happen. A lot.

With every failure, you'll learn something that makes your ideas slightly better.

The reward isn't defined by the success %, but the payoff of finding something others don't think is viable.