A Bullish FVG is a BISI . A FVG is made up of 3 consecutive candlesticks. In a BISI, it starts with the high of candle #1 which will be the FVG low and ends with the low of candle #3 which is the FVG High.
A Bullish FVG gets created when the low of candle #3 doesn't overlap the high of candle #1. This happens when there is a displacement in price from candle #2.
It is called a Buyside Imbalance Sellside Inefficiency (BISI) because during candle number 2 there is only buyside offered to the market so there's a Buyside Imbalance and because there's no sellside being offered there's a Sellside Inefficiency.
Here is an example of a Bullish FVG (BISI)
A Bearish FVG is a SIBI. A SIBI starts at the low of candle #1 which is the FVG High and ends with the high of candle #3 which is the FVG Low. A Bearish FVG is created when the high of candle #3 doesn't overlap the low of candle #1. This happens from the displacement of candle #2
It is called a Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency (SIBI) because during candle #2 there was only sellside offered to the market so there's a Sellside Imbalance and because there is no buyside being offered there's a Buyside Inefficiency.
Here is an example of a bearish FVG (SIBI)
It's the color of candle #2 that determines if the FVG is a BISI or a SIBI.
BISI FVGs will have an up-close candle for candle #2. Candles #1 or #3 color doesn't matter.
SIBI FVGs will have a down-close candle for candle #2. Candles #1 or #3 color doesn't matter.
Now that you understand what a Fair Value Gap is, I will now discuss the 3 different ways on how I use the FVG:
1. Entry Model 2. Draw On Liquidity 3. Point of Interest (POI) / PD Array
1st Way: I use the FVG as an Entry Model but this FVG is only valid if there has been a raid on liquidity or POI & a market structure shift. You need both a raid + mss before an entry on the FVG. The FVG is typically created from displacement when mss occurred. BISI vs SIBI ex:
For my entry model I stay on the M15 TF or below to look for the FVG. Typically my entries are inside of FVGs on M1-M5 timeframe after a HTF + LTF raid, and M5/M15 MSS.
2nd Way: I use the FVG as a Draw on Liquidity. Algorithm draws price towards liquidity & imbalances in the market based on time. HTF FVGs will act as a magnet so price can get rebalanced. BISIs will be the DOL for short positions & SIBIs will be the DOL for long positions.
If you're using the FVG as a DOL look at the HTF, preferably M15 or higher. The higher it is the more significant it is. A randon FVG on the M1 timeframe shouldn't be used as a DOL unless there is other confluence backing it up as in there's a key high/low near it for DOL as well
If you're using the FVG as the DOL and you may see multiple FVGs like this in a row then it means you need to move up and look at higher timeframes because all of these FVGs on LTF is 1 FVG on a HTF.
Pic #1 has multiple FVGs in the range on M5 so it's a BISI since you dont have any down-close candles in this range. Move up to M30 TF and you'll see it's a single FVG. Price doesn't have to completely fill the FVG. It could just test the high for BISI & low for SIBI then reverse
3rd Way: I use the FVG as a HTF Point of Interest / PD array where price could potentially reverse if there is a market structure shift after raiding the FVG. Wait for price to reach the FVG as a POI / PD Array (raid) then look for a MSS before entering the trade.
Other helpful things to know about FVGs are: ICT's Paint Brush Analogy, IOFED, & Consequent Encroachment.
After a raid + mss, when price retraces back into a FVG and immediately rejects and starts moving aggressively towards the DOL that means it's a IOFED because smart money is using that FVG as an entry long or short.
IOFED examples:
Consequent Encroachment (CE) is the midpoint of the FVG from the FVG low to FVG high. FVGs do not have to completely fill. A lot of the times price will wick/reverse off the low/high or CE of the FVG. CE can also be used to measure 50% point of breaker blocks and long wicks.
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With a top down analysis we will start by taking a look of the economic calendar to guide us for the week. High impact news everyday this week but CPI should cause the most volatility so could potentially eye for Tuesday to set high/low of the week depending on bias & PA.
$DXY | M
Now for charts we will look at HTF then work our way down. Dollar has respected the monthly fvg and is currently right at the monthly range high.
🔸Bias (Draw on Liquidity)
🔸Narrative
🔸Liquidity
🔸Market Structure
🔸Entry Model
🔸Risk/Reward
🔸Preparation, Execution, Management
🔸Time & Economic Calendar
🧡&🔁
In simple terms my trading model starts with #TheStrat for HTF quarterly/monthly directional bias. Once I know this I move down to the weekly/daily timeframes and use #mondayrange, #MMXM, #PO3/#AMD to get my bias for the week and day.
When you understand the narrative and see that there's a clear draw on liquidity for your A+ setup, then it becomes very easy to execute the trade on M1-M5/M15 once there's a significant raid and shift in market structure.
My trading performance started significantly improving once I started backtesting. The goal of backtesting is to practice executing your model over and over again, not a bunch of different models. This quote is a great analogy for backtesting.
Pros to Backtesting:
- Learn if your trading model is working or not
- Improves edge as you collect more data
- Trains your eye to see setups form in real time
- Gives you confidence when executing trades
- You don't abandon model when you go through DD periods
Thread on using confluence to find the stronger & weaker pair🧵
As always everyone should first be looking at DXY closely for confluence when trading EU (EURUSD) or GU (GBPUSD) as these pairs should be moving inversely with the dollar.
Use DXY to determine bias to either go long or short then look at EG (EURGBP) next to determine which pair is going to be the weaker or stronger pair.
Thread on High vs Low Probability Market Conditions & Setups🧵
🧡&🔁
Knowing the difference between high vs low probability market conditions/setup is what separates traders from being non-profitable to profitable and is how traders take their game to the next level.
Key Factors For High Probability Market Conditions: 1. Clear Draw on Liquidity 2. Price Follows a Narrative 3. Confluence between DXY and other pairs 4. Low Resistance Liquidity Run 5. Classic Buy/Sell Day Profiles 6. HTF Expansion 7. Setup forms during killzone