Thread by @bidetmarxman

Last month, a trove of top secret Pentagon documents ostensibly leaked on social media.

But far from being an embarrassing breach of sensitive intel, this “leak” has all the signs of being a deliberate disinformation operation by the US.

Here’s why 🧵

The leaked documents first appeared on a Minecraft Discord server on March 1st before eventually spreading to 4chan, Telegram, and Twitter.

The first and most obvious indication that this was a deliberate leak is how quickly the
White House jumped to confirm the authenticity of the docs, which immediately kicked off a media frenzy of sensational headlines throughout the west.

Compare this to the western media blackout surrounding the sensational revelations by journalist Seymour Hersh earlier this year on the US responsibility for the Nord Stream bombings, revelations which the White House has still refused to comment on.

The contents of the “leak” provide further indication of an effort to disinform.

Many of the documents appear to relate to logistical planning around the rumored Ukrainian spring offensive, which includes an assessment of total war losses by both sides to date.

But the leaked docs estimate Ukraine’s KIA losses at only 15,000 - 17,500, a number that is far below what the EU itself publicly admitted was the case late last year, shortly before hurriedly retracting.

But Ukraine proxy war logistics aren’t the only docs that were supposedly leaked, with other contents pointing toward a much broader attempt to implicate several US “allies” in secret military deals with Russia.

One of the more interesting targets appears to be the UAE.

Leaked docs imply the UAE is “deepening ties with Russian intelligence”, a claim the UAE wasted no time in categorically rejecting.

If we were to take their denial at face value, why might the UAE be a target for a US disinfo campaign?

A few reasons.

Firstly, the UAE hosted talks with Syria’s Assad last month, widely seen as a bold step toward improving UAE-Syria relations and likely signaling an end to the more neutral position they’ve maintained since the western-backed effort to overthrow Assad began 12 years ago.

Secondly, the UAE was a key facilitator of the recent historic re-opening of diplomatic relations between the KSA and Iran last month, a development that the Biden administration is reportedly fuming over behind closed doors.

The UAE also plays a prominent role in OPEC, which earlier this month announced plans to cut total oil production by ~3% beginning this May. This is expected to raise petroleum prices globally, which will further undercut the effectiveness of US sanctions on Russia.

And finally, while the Dirham has long been pegged to the dollar, the UAE has emerged as a leader amongst the GCC states in forging ahead in the search for dollar alternatives. Initial discussions are now underway to conduct UAE-India non-oil trade in rupees, dropping dollars.

But the UAE isn’t the only target of this disinformation leak. Egypt is also accused of planning to covertly supply Russia with weapons.

But it’s unclear what calculus would lead Egypt to risk the ire of the US, its largest export destination, for comparatively small upside.

Quite predictably, China is also featured in the leaked docs, with blatant fear-mongering about their military capabilities.

The “leaks” contain zero info not already public and are likely only included to justify further increases to the world’s most bloated military budget.

Hilariously, South Korea is accused of being insufficiently enthusiastic about sending weapons to Ukraine.

But as one of the largest recipients of US arms exports, the ROK is in all likelihood being whipped more for perceived hesitancy toward having to restock with new US arms.

While much of the leak appears to be revealing “secret weapons deals” with Russia, something the US continues to baselessly accuse China of doing, the actual threat the US is likely attempting to counter with this disinformation op is * economic*.

Thus, the signal is clear: insubordination of US global economic dominance is unacceptable.

But why go to the trouble of disseminating this information through a fake “leak” and not simply make their displeasure transparent via diplomatic channels or to the press directly?

Partly because laundering US displeasure through a disinfo leak gives it both an unearned air of legitimacy and fosters media intrigue, since the inclusion of some verifiable information is a means of boosting the leak’s credibility.

But partly because the implied threats behind these leaks fly in the face of the US’s claimed support for a “rules based international order”. It’s difficult to understand which “rules” allow one country to demand absolute fealty from the rest of the world on matters of trade.

In short, this leak was designed by increasingly desperate US leaders, who correctly sense a dramatic weakening of US hegemony and are resorting to the tired old trick of disseming fake stories to attempt to whip countries for venturing outside a shrinking US sphere of influence.

After 9/11, Bush presented the world with a choice: “you are with us, or you are with the terrorists”

22 years later, the US is again attempting to force the same choice with this transparent disinfo op.

Unfortunately for the US, the threat no longer carries the same weight.

Getting some very astute people pointing out how the Pentagon didn’t “rush” to confirm the leaks because they were on social media for over a month before confirming.

This is partly true, but it misunderstands how US propaganda laundering works. Here’s how:

1. Docs circulate for over a month on SM because they look fabricated.
2. NYTimes gets a little nudge from an ‘anonymous source’ in Pentagon.
3. NYT runs a story that “Pentagon is investigating a leak”
4. Pentagon quickly confirms.
5. International press goes nuts.