Thread by @Aaron_MatthewIL

The reach of the 🇵🇭 Hermes 900 fleet from @ThrustWR. Zach created this map as a result of our conversation on the Philippine Air Force’s Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance capabilities. The following 🧵 covers some of the major points from that discussion. 1/17

On March 31st, an inspection ceremony was held at Clark Air Base for a refurbished C-130T aircraft. While one would expect the point of the ceremony to be on highlighting the PAF’s lift capabilities, the real focus was on displaying the PAF’s ISR capabilities. 2/17

With the President and U.S. Ambassador in attendance, the PAF showed off not only their assets but of them in action. Most notably, a presentation of the SABIR system on a C-130T of its use on surveilling 🇨🇳 military bases in the South China Sea. 3/17

But for the focus on this 🧵, we’ll be looking at the Hermes 900 capability demonstration. The demonstration saw a Hermes 900 circle and observe designated points at Fernando Air Base. The presenter also highlighted the Hermes 900’s use in “maritime patrols.” 4/17

The PAF operates 3 Hermes 900 Unmanned Aerial Systems, of which have 3 Hermes 900 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles per system bringing the total fleet to 9 drones. These are also joined by 4, less capable, Hermes 450 UAVs. 5/17

For more background information on these UAS, please check out @MonteroMax’s coverage of the program here: maxdefense.blogspot.com/2020/09/philip… 6/17

The operation and use of these drones by the PAF is relatively unknown, as the service doesn’t reveal much information on them. But here are the parts where @ThrustWR and I have gotten down that reveal the extent of their ISR capabilities. 7/17

Because of the PAF’s confidentiality of Hermes 900, from where they operate to their use in operations, we were unsure how mobile the service was with their deployment and basing. That was until this 2022’s Bantay Dagat. 8/17

https://twitter.com/Aaron_MatthewIL/status/1591642428267974656

From this photo, we can see both a Hermes 900 and its Unified Control System deployed in Palawan (presumably Antonio Bautista Air Base) for last year’s exercise. 9/17

Yet, even with this forward basing being demonstrated, 300 km LOS is not enough for Hermes 900s here to operate over Thitu Island and other important WPS features. To reach them, the drone needs a Satellite Communications capability. Which leads us into our next question. 10/17

We were also unsure, and still somewhat are, of the SATCOM capabilities of the PAF’s Hermes fleet in general. 11/17

@ThrustWR and I estimate at least one Hermes 900 UAS, that being 3 drones, have this capability. This is indicated by the presence of an antenna. Compare the first Hermes to the second. 12/17

This confirms that at least one of the PAF’s Hermes 900 UAS can operate beyond the 300 km LOS limit through their ability to use SATCOM. And as shown by @ThrustWR’s map, this brings a lot for the Philippines’ in its ability to monitor the South China Sea. 13/17

It should be noted that we still have questions on the Hermes 900s, such as if they have some Israeli systems that we would expect the Philippines to have. We also wonder who gives the PAF the SATCOM links for them to use this capability. 14/17

This capability, as well as other’s in the PAF’s fleet, can really be a game changer in exposing 🇨🇳 activities in the WPS/SCS. The impact of this strategy, as recently demonstrated by the PCG and covered by @GordianKnotRay, has yielded impressive results. 15/17

https://twitter.com/GordianKnotRay/status/1633245439968546817

We’ve seen the service use its aircraft in these missions, but they do not release their findings. If they were, with their reach and dedicated ISR assets the PAF has a strong capability to monitor and expose. 16/17

For as long this 🧵 was, this only scratches the surface. There is a lot more to cover, like assets procured via MSI. And with taking into account recent events (🇵🇭🇯🇵 security cooperation, 🇵🇭🇺🇸 2+2 roadmap) there lies the potential for even more aerial ISR assets. END 17/17